Rapidly increasing prices for food, gas and electricity in Kyrgyzstan provide a fertile ground for public discontent with the government. That the Kyrgyz President is preparing for a hot political period in the coming months is evident from his recent government reshuffles and his public politics. But Kurmanbek Bakiyev is not the only one to worry about the implications of rapid inflation, as opposition camps are consolidating their forces as well.

Two days after electricity tariffs were raised yet again on June 1, Bakiyev appointed his brother, Zhanysh Bakiyev, to head the National Guard. He thus secured his personal bodyguard in the face of an armed state structure. Furthermore, he increased the salaries of the internal troops, making sure that they remain loyal in case mass protests unravel later this year.

In his public policies, Bakiyev recently announced his “Kyrgyzstan-2020” development plan that is poignantly reminiscent of Russian Prime Minister Valdimir Putin’s program “Russia-2020” program and Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s “Kazakhstan-2030” strategy. By creating a development plan, Bakiyev tried to calm public worries about the deteriorating economy, mismanagement of the energy sector and suspicions that the government is incapable of producing effective policies.

Kyrgyzstan’s opposition from various backgrounds, in turn, has tried to consolidate into a “United Kyrgyzstan” bloc. The bloc unites supporters of former President Askar Akayev, former members of Bakiyev’s government, and political leaders who have been in perpetual opposition. For instance, the bloc includes Osmankul Ibraimov, former State Secretary under Akayev; Bolot Januzakov, former Secretary of the Security Council; Naken Kasiyev, a former governor; Askar Aitmatov, the former Foreign Minister; and Temir Sariyev, a former MP. The uniting trait among them is perhaps their wealthy financial background and ambition to represent the ruling regime.

Most of “United Kyrgyzstan’s” members belong to different political parties with their own political, economic and cultural agendas. But they jointly declare that rapid inflation should be prevented and the poor should be rescued from total economic deprivation and starvation. The calls indeed meet the popular worries among ordinary citizens who notice the price hike for food each month.

In the past three years, fall and spring seasons have been rich in political showdowns and mass demonstrations in Kyrgyzstan. This year the opposition has inflation working in its favor. On the wave of such populism, the United Kyrgyzstan (or any other anti-government force) is sure to collect crowds this fall. Alas, the culture of protest is well developed in Kyrgyzstan, and people will likely walk out on the streets frustrated with deteriorating living conditions. The situation might be that even those who refrained from walking out to Bishkek central square before for political motives might do so this fall.

The price hike earlier this year will be felt acutely in the fall, when energy bills will start increasing. Rolling blackouts have already become an everyday matter this year and the government is trying to save electricity in the summer for the colder period. “Food prices, except for bread, are nearly equal and sometimes above those in the U.S. with local salaries being far lower,” says one Kyrgyz observer. Another local expert comments that “those who condemn inflation these hard times will be able to promote any other political issue with the crowds.” Similar to calls to reduce corruption in the government, anger with rapidly deteriorating living conditions can easily serve as an instrument to politicize the population.

Increasing energy costs sparked public debates in local mass media on the government’s effectiveness in managing the energy sector, and the devastating corruption that has been revealed by several experts in the field in the past two years. Experts in the energy sector have been expressing their concerns with the decomposing infrastructure at the hydropower plants and corruption pyramids that disallow the sector’s development.

This public debate has not yet led to any substantial changes in the sector’s management or greater transparency. But Bakiyev often notes that two hydropower plants, Kambarata-1 and Kambarata-2, are the country’s strategic assets and his government will make sure that they are developed wisely. However, Bakiyev might face defeat in this battle of ideas and resort to more shrewd strategies. The stakes are high for him and the members of United Kyrgyzstan, less then two years before the presidential elections in summer 2010.