The results of the contentious parliamentary elections held in Kyrgyzstan on December 16 seem to show the last stages of President Kurmanbek Bakiev’s plans to ensure strong centralized power and to force stability on the country.  The pro-presidential party, Ak Zhol, won 71 out of 90 seats in the parliament. However, Ata Meken, the popular radical oriented party that was racing second in the popular vote, was left with no seats, failing narrowly to pass the controversial threshold in one electoral unit, the city of Osh.  The election results are widely questioned, creating a view that the country’s political confrontation will not subside, in spite of the opposition-free parliament.

Along with Ak Jol, smaller parties such as the centrist Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK) and the pro-presidential Communist Party entered the parliament, filling 11 and 8 seats respectively.  Although securing 8.3 percent of votes nationwide, the Central Election Commission (CEC) ruled that Ata Meken failed to pass the new rule mandating every party to obtain 0.5% of the national vote in every province. Ata Meken failed in the city of Osh, where the threshold soared up to 10 percent of the provincial vote, given the small size of populace.

The CEC’s decision sparked small flash protests in Jalalabad, Osh and Bishkek, and hunger strikes of more than 50 people in Osh and Bishkek in support of Ata Meken and against rigged elections.  From 18 to 21 December students and civil activists organized an unauthorized campaign, “I do not believe,” in protest against the “CEC’s incompetence and partiality,” until they were put down by law enforcement officers, its leaders being imprisoned for several days.

Unlike the preliminary results showing Ak Jol as the only winner, the official results on December 19 had the SDPK and Communist Party pass the nationwide barrier by a minuscule margin.  In the latter’s case, the percentage of votes almost doubled.  Nevertheless, so far the CEC has been reluctant to show their figures in relation to the problematic 0.5 percent barrier.  Surprised with these changes, Akylbek Sariev, a member of the CEC, in an interview to Radio Liberty said that “the information blockade in CEC is substantial. For example, we are not sure how many complaints we have.”

On December 21, the US State Department, referring to “irregularities of procedures and administrative involvement” registered by election monitoring organizations such as the OSCE, described the election as “marred by the government’s intention to achieve specific political objectives.” Following the recent dismissal of Almazbek Atambaev as prime minister, the Stratfor Research Center forecast that with centralized power, Bakiev, under the influence of Moscow, could finish off unresolved questions such as the fate of the American air base near Bishkek.

Bakiev appears confident that the parliamentary election was “one of the most transparent and fairest over the last years.”  On December 18, Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated Bakiev for “successful parliamentary elections that will foster stability in the country and positively contribute to deepening relations between the two countries.” The CIS observer mission, in its turn, commented that “Kyrgyzstan passed the test of democracy with dignity.”

Although three out of 12 registered parties did enter parliament, Ata Meken is being perceived as the main victim of rigged elections.  It categorically refused to recognize the election results due to “dreadful violations of the Electoral Code” and demanded a recount of votes and repeat elections in Osh.  Its members say that “the early spring will usher in a second wave of discontent with the results of the elections, aggravated by a general increase in the price of basic products and services.” In the meantime, claiming to have clear-cut evidence of its success in Osh, the party has filed a lawsuit to protest the election results. 

In general, many have come to believe that Ata Meken, founded in the early years of independence, has a good chance to consolidate itself and successfully lead other small parties.  Two months before the elections, the Ak Shumkar Party led by tycoons and popular northern opposition members like Kubatbek Baybolov and Temir Sariev, merged with Ata Meken.  Its leader, Omurbek Tekebaev, a former speaker of the parliament, is well-known as a hard-core and principled opposition leader.  He was elected four times to parliament and twice ran for president, in 1995 and 2000, in the latter case coming second after Askar Akaev.

From the onset of Bakiev’s rule, Tekebaev was frequently accused of engaging in high-level politics at the expense of his own district in Jalalabad oblast.  In fall 2006, amid the constitutional crisis when the president accepted the  For Reform opposition movement’s draft constitution, 16,000 signatures were reportedly gathered from his electoral district to strip Tekebaev of his mandate.  He also made international headlines at the time, when on his way to a conference in Warsaw he was arrested for smuggling heroin, but was released as a he was found the victim of political intrigues.  It became known that Janysh Bakiev, the president’s brother and a high security official, was involved in setting Tekebaev up.

Tekebaev resigned as speaker of parliament in early 2006, when debates on the constitutional reforms began to surface. This was preceded by his harsh rhetoric against Bakiev, who, in turn, condemned the parliament as a “source of instability,” for sabotaging the work of the government by spurring “unreasonable debates over a parliamentary form of government.”  Specifically, Bakiev accused the parliament of being controlled by a handful of opposition members.

So far, Bakiev and his team have been enjoying series of swift victories over the opposition.  Government branches were cleansed of all unwelcome thorns, which is likely boost the president’s confidence to adopt bold political and economic decisions.  On the other hand, the unrepresented opposition parties will have the time and motivation to come up with a consolidated opposition camp by spring.  However, the opposition’s actions are likely to heavily depend on the popular mood, which so far has proved apathetic towards the apparent violations in the recent referendum and parliamentary elections.  Changes in the socio-economic realm during the winter will likely play a determining role for the way the situation plays out.