While opposition parties in Kazakhstan are making faltering attempts to consolidate their forces in anticipation of snap parliamentary elections set for August 18, the pro-presidential Nur Otan party, in a bid to win the overwhelming majority of votes, trumpets its ambitious pre-election program the central point of which is the improvement of living standards. With such a powerful propaganda trump card bolstered by administrative resources accumulated at the hands of the ruling party, the outcome of the elections is easily predictable.

The most widespread fear among the opposition camp is that if the pro-presidential Nur Otan party gets up to 90 percent of votes as forecast by some experts it may lead to one-party rule and the de facto elimination of political pluralism in the country. The threat of return to a communist-type party rule loomed ahead again as President Nursultan Nazarbayev, addressing the party congress of the Nur Otan on July 6, alluded to the American two-party system. “It would be nice for us to have, like in the USA, two powerful parties capable of offering to people their programs”, he argued.  It is not quite clear, which of the existing parties would rival Nur Otan in real terms if the presidential scheme would be materialized. More than once over the past decade, the masses have come to realize that all roads to authoritarian rule are paved with silver-tongued promises of political freedom and economic prosperity.

Leaders of the Nur Otan party made good use of the economic success of Kazakhstan in Central Asia, promising to increase per capita GDP up to $13,000 and to double the average income of the population. But independent experts warn that these most frequently used populist slogans are out of touch with reality. Poverty is rampant, particularly in rural areas. Corrupt officials use the money allocated for the development of social infrastructure to line their own pockets. According to the head of the Sotszashita public foundation Ludmila Zhulanova, last year the consumer basket of 43 basic items was estimated at 8,410 tenge. As of May this year, the minimal subsistence level rose to 7,945 tenge. The government did not keep promises to bring the cost of housing down to $350 per square meter – housing prices shot up to $1000 over the last two years. Repayments on home loans are simply unaffordable for families with average monthly incomes of $250. The failures of government programs in other areas, including health service, education, and pension reform weakens Nur Otan’s position.

For all that, however, no other party can offer anything better. Nur Otan wields enormous administrative power propped up with seemingly unlimited financial and material leverage. Practically everything, from donations of a computer to a village school to nationwide charity campaigns, is carried out in the name of Nur Otan.

The ruling party ,led by Nazarbayev as its chairman, made a an undisguised effort to purge the party of politically unreliable elements. As part of this move, the deputy chairmen Alexandr Pavlov and the daughter of president, the divorced wife of the renegade Rakhat Aliev, Dariga Nazarbaeva, were removed from their posts to be replaced by the head of the Kazyna foundation Kairat Kelimbetov and the less known figure Sergei Gromov. Dariga Nazarbayeva was also excluded from the list of party candidates. The father of Rakhat Aliev, Mukhtar Aliev, disloyal publisher Andrei Shukhov, and former deputy justice minister Sergei Nugmanov were ousted from the political council of the party. At the same time, the political council of Nur Otan includes new prominent figures, such as former foreign minister and speaker of the Senate Kasymzhomart Tokayev,  head of the presidential administration Adilbek Zhaksybekov, mayor of Astana Askar Mamin, and governor of South Kazakhstan region Umirsak Shukeyev.

The success of Nur Otan party is partly due to the permanent infighting in the opposition camp. Alikhan Baimenov, the leader of the influential Ak Zhol Democratic Party, which goes to the polls strengthened with the Adilet party, boasted before a television camera that the merged party will get 30 per cent of the votes. The problem of Ak Zhol is that it will face a strong challenge not only from Nur Otan, but in the first place from Nagyz Ak Zhol, another opposition party and its uncompromising political rival. Gani Kasymov, one of the contenders in the last presidential elections and the leader of Aul Social-Democratic Party hopes his party will not only surmount the seven percent threshold of votes but will reap up to 20 percent of the votes. He believes that Nur Otan’s current attempt to amass all political power in its own hand is a time bomb ticking for the end of the establishment.