In the course of only one week, two U.S. high officials –Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and Assistant Secretary of State for Central and South Asia Richard Boucher – visited Bishkek to discuss the development of Kyrgyz-U.S. relations. Both U.S. officials insisted that the Kyrgyz government and parliament should regard the status of the U.S. military base at Manas airport as key to international fight against terrorism. Furthermore, Boucher suggested that Kyrgyzstan not raise the issue of the U.S. military base in the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Bishkek.

Such increased attention to U.S.-Kyrgyz relations appears provoked by a rapidly growing antagonism among Kyrgyz citizens and state officials towards the U.S. military presence in the country. According to the Bishkek-based Institute for Public Policy, although Kyrgyz-U.S. relations were stable during 2001-2004, they significantly worsened after the SCO summit of August 2005, when Kyrgyzstan was urged to request deadlines for the U.S. military presence on its territory. A year later, Kyrgyzstan expelled two U.S. diplomats over allegations of spying.

However, the December 2006 killing of Kyrgyz citizen Alexander Ivanov by a U.S. airman was the tipping point for the accumulation of public anger. Local mass media outlets, political figures, and NGO activists mobilized excessively aggressively against the United States, seeking every possible reason to expel the U.S. military base from the country.

Rumors such as a U.S. government alleged plan to attack Iran from the Manas airbase, and the possible storage of nuclear weapons there, found a fertile ground for further speculations. This in turn made it easier for pro-Russian political forces to demonstrate their disagreement with Kyrgyzstan’s long-standing cooperation with the United States.

One popular Kyrgyz newspaper contemplated the risk of an Iranian attack against Kyrgyzstan over its cooperation with the United States, while former prime minister Felix Kulov came up with the idea of joining Russia in a confederation. Both Kyrgyz president Kurmanbek Bakiyev and Parliament Speaker Marat Sultanov are openly hostile to the U.S. military base. Amid wide criticism of the U.S. presence in Kyrgyzstan, there is hardly any concerned voiced about political developments in Russia.

As the SCO summit approaches, tensions around the U.S. base are intensifying and hence Secretary Gates and Assistant Secretary Boucher paid visits to Bishkek at the right time. Yet the Kyrgyz government will continue to feel pressure from the SCO member states, especially Russia and China, to curb the U.S. presence on its territory. Indeed, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will visit Kyrgyzstan on July 10 to boost Russian-Kyrgyz political and economic relations.

Both China and Russia offered their financial help with organizing the SCO summit. The summit represents a unique opportunity for both Eurasian leaders to compel the weak Kyrgyz government to move further under the SCO’s influence. Even if Kyrgyzstan avoids discussing its relations with the U.S., the issue will most likely be raised by other SCO member states.

Although Kyrgyzstan today is the only Central Asian state where civil society activists are able to speak freely and unfazed by government’s persecution, this freedom of speech is often skillfully manipulated by larger political powers. The fact that the majority of the Kyrgyz population is exposed to Russian-speaking mass media outlets allows the easy promotion of pro-Moscow views among them. Furthermore, in regard to the U.S. presence, Kyrgyz politicians often appeal to the citizens’ feelings of patriotism, thus mobilizing them against a perceived national enemy. With the December 2006 killing of a Kyrgyz citizen, any pro-U.S. views were considered unpatriotic. Finally, rumors about the U.S. military base were quickly picked up by local mass media outlets and not countered by any other sources.

Should another incident similar to Ivanov’s case occur in the coming months, anti-U.S. moods will resume with even stronger pitch. Similarly, political actors in Kyrgyzstan are likely to seek support primarily among the SCO members in the upcoming presidential election in 2010.

Meanwhile, a special movement against the U.S. military base was formed in Kyrgyzstan. It is currently seeking funding and political support to stage rallies in Bishkek. The movement mainly unites communist youth from Bishkek. Unfortunately, the movement could be used by political forces wishing to either further destabilize the Kyrgyz government or to provide incentives for impairing official relations with the U.S.