The rally, consisting approximately of 30,000 people, started with a moment of silence for the recent death of soldiers on the Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan border, where an armed bandit group attempted to break into Kyrgyzstan. Then it was followed by the opposition’s criticism of Minister Defense Ismail Iskakov, who wanted to organize a festivity dedicated to Kyrgyzstan’s Army Forces Day at the same time, which was understood as an attempt to hinder the gathering of people, similar to the methods of former President Askar Akaev. The celebration was usually held in the National Philharmonic and on 29 May. However, on the eve of the rally it became known that the parade was forestalled because of predicted “bad weather”.

Unlike the previous rally held on 29 April, an emphasis was given on breaking regional ethnical and religious affiliations in order to keep the situation stable. Almazbek Atambaev, members of opposition who resigned from the position Minister of Tourism and Industry, claimed that the government was resorting to regional divisive policies in order justify themselves, saying “northerners are not letting southerners [Bakiev and his command] work”.

Even though the government reshuffle of 10 May was seen as a first accomplishment of the opposition following the April rally, President Kurmanbek Bakiev is slow in officially introducing his new appointees to the parliament. He rather plans doing it in autumn. This is understandable, given that some of them are not popular among parliamentarians – such as Daniyar Usenov, one of the successful businessmen in Kyrgyzstan allegedly involved in corruption, whose candidacy as the first Deputy Prime Minister did not go through the parliament in October 2005.

In order to create a counterweight to the burgeoning opposition, dozens of pro-presidential parties cropped out on the political arena, joining in April 2006 in a single block called the National Forum with the same aims as that of the opposition: for democratic reforms and the rule of law. The core of the forum is built on such parties as “The Republican Party of Labor and Unity” led by people engaged in the president’s pre-election campaign, “Community” led by the dean of Kyrgyz-Slavic University, “New Kyrgyzstan” led by Usen Sydykov, and “Erkindik” of Topchubek Turgunaliev, who has put enormous effort to dissolve the parliament since the March events through collecting signatures. The latter two embarked upon organizing Kurultays (people’s assembly) in regions of Kyrgyzstan, in which, it is said, they steer the minds of the electorate against their representatives in the parliament.

However, analysts claim the National Forum is artificial and could fail, pointing to the ideological difference among its constituent parties. For example, Topchubek Turgunaliev, leader of the “Erkindik” party, is critical towards the tandem between the president and the prime minister, whereas “Community” holds the opposite view.

Another organization that emerged on the political arena shortly was the Coalition of National Democrats (CND), which strongly resembles the Coalition For Democracy and Civil Society led by Edil Baysalov, an outstanding critic of the government. The newly created organization blames Baisalov’s group for serving as leverage for foreign interests in the country, especially “western” ones. The CND’s pro-Russian views may imply that some government officials, who believe that funding from abroad is a threat to national security, back it up.

By creating parties and organizations with analogues names and agendas, the government tries to confuse the people, says Omurbek Tekebaev, an ardent member of the opposition who voluntarily resigned as Speaker of Parliament. Incidentally, meetings have been held in Tekebaev’s electoral district to have him recalled. Tekebaev himself argues that the government initiated it.

Despite the relative coherence of the opposition, it has its own cracks over its objectives. The “Asaba” party led by Roza Otunbaeva, the former Foreign Minister, and Azimbek Beknazarov, the former Prosecutor General and current MP, refrained from joining the rally “For reforms”, highlighting that they are for the “civilized demolishing of the tandem” and “new reforms”. They believe that the mainstream opposition strive to bring down Mr. Bakiev and returning to the constitution of 1993, which was later distorted by the ousted former Askar Akaev.

However, this time, by passing resolution in front of the people, the opposition seem to make a take-it-or-leave-it deal, saying if the government fails to meet its ten key demands, they would seek the dismantling of the “tandem” between the president and prime minister, which is taken to imply that if one leaves, then the other has to leave too. Nonetheless, as if giving a chance to the government to live up to the demands, the opposition set an extended timeframe, till September.

Therefore, the early autumn is likely to be hot for the government and opposition as well as for the people, because it is the time when the general referendum over the form of government will be held. The opposition will expect the government to fulfill their demands, whereas the pro-presidential forum plans to organize a concluding Kurultay in Bishkek in September to keep the presidential system of government and in general to support the incumbent government.