Tokayev had an unusually busy schedule during his April 11-13 visit to Beijing, conducting a wide range of talks with top Chinese officials on energy, transport communication, border trade and, last but not least, trans-border river issues, a long-running sticking point in relations between the two states. Considering the complexity of problems in relations with Beijing despite the invariable protestations of friendship in bilateral summit talks, Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry apparently had good reasons to postpone the visit to China, originally scheduled to take place in late February. Tokayev sought to prepare a good ground for the upcoming visit of President Nursultan Nazarbayev to Beijing planned for this autumn. According to some observers, Tokayev succeeded in eliminating major hurdles on the way to the Beijing summit. The Kazakh Foreign Minister squeezed from the chairman of the Chinese State Council Weng Ziabao a pledge to work ‘in a constructive manner” on the settlement of the problems regarding the Irtysh and Ili trans-border rivers “taking into account the long-term interests of the two states and the importance of keeping the ecological balance and rational use of water resources for the benefit of the peoples of the two countries” . For many years, Astana has been nervous about Chinese plans to build dams to divert the waters of the Irtysh for irrigation purposes, threatening to cause a devastating water shortage in three wheat-growing regions along the river in Kazakhstan.

Tokayev and Chinese Foreign Minister Lee Zhaoxin stated that Kazakhstan and China have no divergences in the political sphere, and they take a similar stance on international issues. A member of the Chinese State Council, Tang Ziaxiuan, went even further saying that China’s policy towards Kazakhstan as a key state in Central Asia is based on long-term Chinese strategic interests and not on ad hoc approach” – perhaps a jibe at other powers.

The political setting of Tokayev’s visit was carefully arranged. Not long ago, the Ministry of Economy and Mineral Resources of Kazakhstan announced a plan to export electricity to China. Reportedly, China and Kazakhstan are currently contemplating the construction of a hydroelectric power station in the coal-producing town of Yekibastuz in North Kazakhstan on the Irtysh River. The power station, with a projected capacity of 7,200 megawatts of electricity to be delivered to China, is designed to become the most powerful electricity-generating installation in the CIS. Experts fear that the coal-fired power station may turn into an environmental disaster for the region, although the construction is welcomed by the largely foreign-owned coal-producing companies of Yekibastuz. What attracts China seems to be the low transport costs of coal which, however, contains a high level of poisonous substances and produces ash dusts. Yekibastuz, with high rate of cancer diseases, is among the most polluted cities of Kazakhstan. While economic benefits from the power station for Kazakhstan are highly questionable, with its construction the country will acquire another environmental headache.

The decision to export electricity to China comes at a time when Kazakhstan itself is facing the grim prospect of electric power shortages in the western and southern parts of the country within the next five or ten years. The West Kazakhstan and Aktobe regions entirely depend on high-priced Russian supplies of electricity. But Astana is keen on upgrading its power network with Chinese help, disregarding the environmental and political costs of the dubious enterprise. Public movements in Kazakhstan have long voiced concern over the uncontrolled inflow of Chinese into the country under the guise of labor migration. Some estimates say that over 100,000 Chinese illegal migrants currently live in Kazakhstan, and they seek Kazakh citizenship. China Expert Aisha Kozhabekova believes that it is no longer possible to turn the tide of Chinese migrants, therefore the government must pursue the policy of integrating the Chinese already settled in Kazakhstan into Kazakh society, assimilating them culturally and ethnically, and employing them as a cheap labor force in agriculture and other areas where workforce is scarce.

Migration from China was one of the issues discussed during Tokayev’s visit to China. The Foreign Minister expressed concern over the prospect of the Chinese population in regions bordering Kazakhstan reaching 300 million in the next fifteen years. “But despite some fears, there is no alternative to cooperation with China. It is a matter of national security for Kazakhstan”, he concluded, talking to journalists in a somewhat evasive way.

China, hungry for new energy resources, places priority on the construction of a gas pipeline from Kazakhstan and an extension of the Atasu-Alashankou oil pipeline, as well as the planned high-voltage power line from North Kazakhstan. The Kazakh government earmarked 50 billion tenge (ca. US$400 million)for the reconstruction of the Aktogay-Dostyk railway line on the border with China and mapped out a development program for the Dostyk railway station, which is thought to have strategic importance to increase the volume of cargo shipments to China.

Beijing endlessly lavishes words on “strategic partnership and eternal friendship” with Kazakhstan. Signs of true friendship based on confidence are not in sight yet.