Wednesday, 08 February 2006

KYRGYZSTAN - FIRST PARLIAMENTARY REPUBLIC IN CENTRAL ASIA?

Published in Field Reports

By Nurshat Ababakirov (2/8/2006 issue of the CACI Analyst)

At the meeting of the Constitutional Council on December 21, President Kurmanbek Bakiev spoke about the need to determine the form of the government before proceeding to drafting a new constitution. Therefore, he suggested postponing constitutional reforms until 2009. Although the president expressed enthusiasm for reforms, many critics have pointed out the fact that his government has so far fallen short of bringing about the changes anticipated after the March revolution, when demonstrators stormed the Kyrgyz White House with the aim of dismantling the Akayev regime.
At the meeting of the Constitutional Council on December 21, President Kurmanbek Bakiev spoke about the need to determine the form of the government before proceeding to drafting a new constitution. Therefore, he suggested postponing constitutional reforms until 2009. Although the president expressed enthusiasm for reforms, many critics have pointed out the fact that his government has so far fallen short of bringing about the changes anticipated after the March revolution, when demonstrators stormed the Kyrgyz White House with the aim of dismantling the Akayev regime.

Increasing numbers of political figures, including leading members of parliament and some members of the cabinet, have voiced their support for a parliamentary republic as a barrier to authoritarian rule. President Bakiev, however, said the preconditions for a parliamentary republic are a robust economy, a vibrant civil society, the rule of law, and strong political parties. On other occasions, he has challenged the preparedness of political parties for such a change. “I do not oppose making the Jogorku Kenesh (parliament) consist exclusively of political parties, but where are those parties?” he said. Moreover, he added that Kyrgyzstan could not afford to have chaos caused by weak and disorganized political parties. “I can not experiment with our people,” he concluded.

Kyrgyzstan, with a population of 5 million people, has around 70 officially registered parties. Many of them are new parties founded after the March revolution and often one-person parties or parties of special groups, for example the party of disabled. However, there are also time-honored and experienced parties like the Social Democrats, Democratic Movement of Kyrgyzstan, Communist, Ar-namys, and others. Local experts believe that 70% of the political parties are associated with their leaders’ personality rather than with their political stance. The director general of Tribuna newspaper, Yrysbek Omurzakov, says that most of the parties “only have their names, leaders, and regulations.”

As various issues of the constitutional reforms are being discussed, many political parties have already embarked on building coalitions in preparation to the elections to the municipalities and the future parliamentary elections. It has been proposed that a part of the 75-member Jogorku Kenesh will be elected proportionally through party lists and another part through single-mandate constituencies. However, the exact proportion of seats to be accorded to proportional representation is not decided yet, nor is the number of seat in the parliament. It has been suggested that the number of seats should be increased from 75 to at least 105.

On November 18, a number of right-wing parties, lead by the Erkindik (Freedom), Republican, Erkin Kyrgyzstan (Free Kyrgyzstan) and Kyrgyzstan Kelechegi (Future of Kyrgyzstan) parties, announced they were forming a bloc. As one of largest parties, Topchubek Turgunaliev’s Erkindik is known for collecting signatures for dissolution of the current parliament.

Another loose coalition of parties is the People’s Congress of Kyrgyzstan, which includes Ar-namys (Dignity), co-founded by current Prime Minister Felix Kulov, Atameken (Fatherland), led by Parliament Speaker Omurbek Tekebayev, Adilet (Justice) of Toychubek Kasymov and the Social Democratic Party, led by Minister of Industry, Trade and Tourism Almaz Atambaev. Analysts have suggested that the Congress joins forces with similar parties, such as the Union of Democratic Forces, spearheaded by parliamentarian Kubatbek Baybolov, Moya Strana (My Country) of former Vice-Prime Minister Joomart Otorbaev, and Justice and Progress of former Foreign Minister Muratbek Imanaliev. If the merger goes ahead, the coalition, whose main goal is to turn Kyrgyzstan into a parliamentary republic, can become one of the strongest parties in the country.

On the left, the Communist Party of Kyrgyzstan, now led by Iskhak Masaliev, the son of Apsamat Masaliev, the First Secretary of Communist Party in the late 1980s, is believed to be planning to team up with Jany Kyrgyzstan (New Kyrgyzstan), associated with Presidential Chief of Staff Usen Sydykov.

Kubatbek Baybolov, the parliamentarian and the leader of the new “Union of Democratic Forces” party demands that the government create a favorable environment for the development of political parties. “Do we need to wait for 40 years, hoping strong parties will emerge?” he asks bewildered. He argues that if the constitution authorizes elections by party lists, these sixty parties will easily merge to produce six stronger ones.

On the other hand, the head of the non-governmental organization Coalition for Democracy and Civil Society Edil Baisalov expresses his concern over the feasibility of parties. \"Leaders created parties out of personal ambitions and interests, and thought only of how to further their own political and economic goals.” Emil Aliyev, the leader of Ar-namys party, said strong political parties in a parliamentary republic could prevent tribal and north-south divisions, thus making parties compete with each other on the national level with their platforms. Independent parliamentarian Omurbek Babanov, one of the ardent advocates of the parliamentarian system, points out that in the current presidential system “one person makes all the decisions, while the Prime Minister and his cabinet bears the responsibility.” He reproaches the 15-year Akayev regime for its flaws such as the centralization of power and duplication of some responsibilities by the Cabinet and Presidential Apparatus.

The December 18 local government elections, held with 52 percent turnout, showed little improvement in diversion from clan-based voting. It was reported that voters had turned out to support their relatives or tribe members in the elections, and, in case of a loss, protested against the results.

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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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