The lower house of parliament of Kazakhstan set the election date for December 4 and defused the tense atmosphere created by the ambiguous position of the Central Election Committee and Constitutional court on the issue. The official announcement came only on September 7. It can be expected that this election will be different in many respects from similar political campaigns held in the past. President Nazarbayev did everything to boost his personal image at home and abroad presenting himself as a true reformer and advocate of democratic changes. In 2003, addressing the delegates of Civic forum he for the first time called for close cooperation between the state and non-governmental organizations, thus neutralizing potential opponents from the influential section of the society. He made further important moves, promising the protection of property owners from lawlessness and plunder perpetrated by government officials. His clearly articulated social and economic policy outlined during his numerous trips to the country’s regions over the past few months went down very well with the public.

Nevertheless, in his talks with former U.S. President Bill Clinton who came to Almaty on September 6, Nazarbayev used the occasion to warn western organizations, foreign institutions and embassies against interference with the election process in Kazakhstan. This reveals his worries about the outcome of the elections if it is influenced from the outside. In fact, the majority of political analysts and election experts believe that the incumbent president will easily win the election. The director of the Kazakh Institute for Strategic Researches, Bolat Sultanov, says that his institute forecasts that up to 70% of the electorate will cast their votes for Nazarbayev.

That estimate comes close to the results of the public opinion poll conducted by the Association of Sociologists and Political Scientists, which puts Nazarbayev’s rating at 70%, while his main political opponent, the candidate nominated by the bloc ‘For Fair Kazakhstan’ Zarmakhan Tuyakbay’s rating is as low as 3%. Other candidates for presidency, the self-nominees Amantay Haji, an unknown businessman from Almaty Salim Oten, the chairman of the Tabigat environmental movement Mels Yeleusizov, the deputy of the Senate Ualikhan Kaisar and Alikhan Baimenov, nominated by Ak Zhol party, Yerasyl Abilkasymov from the Communist People’s Party of Kazakhstan, do not enjoy any popular support.

It was an open secret that Nazarbayev will run for another term of presidency, but he publicly voiced his intention only on September 9, at the congress of his Otan party. He has already laid a solid foundation for his future election victory, touring the regions of the country on ‘working visits’ which however looked like a well-organized election campaign, and everywhere he reaped praises and public support for his political and economic course. The pro-presidential Otan party and the Asar political party headed by Dariga Nazarbayeva, the eldest daughter of the incumbent president, announced on September 9 that they set up an election bloc, The People’s Coalition of Kazakhstan, in support of Nursultan Nazarbayev. But even pro-presidential forces cannot display full unanimity. For example, the Civic Party, Rukhaniyat and Aul parties remained outside the coalition. Azat Peruashev, the leader of the Civic Party, expressed his doubts about the necessity to form such an ambiguous coalition which would produce adverse propaganda effect during the election campaign in a society fed up with all sorts of parties, factions and blocs.

On the other side of the barricade, human rights activists established their own independent For Fair Election monitoring body joined by the Kazakh International Bureau for Human Rights, the Sociological Research and Information Institute and independent journalists. However, the chances of the opposition to win in fair and honest elections are very slim. Opposition parties are seriously weakened by internal splits and rivalry for political leadership within the organization. The single candidate put forward by opposition bloc For Fair Kazakhstan, former speaker of the Senate Zharmakhan Tuyakbay is not unanimously recognized by opposition forces. Alikhan Baimenov, another candidate and the popular leader of the Ak Zhol party, sees him as a rival rather than an opposition figure. The Marxist-Leninist faction of the Communist Party of Kazakhstan questions the political integrity of Zharmakhan Tuyakbay.

For the majority of the population it is almost certain that the incumbent president will be elected for another term. On the plus side of President Nazarbayev is his image of a leader well versed in political and economic matters and equally popular at home and abroad. Many sincerely believe that there is no one in the opposition or in the government to replace him. A relatively strong economy and peace and stability in Kazakhstan’s multi-ethnic society are the main trump cards for Nursultan Nazarbayev in the upcoming elections. It is likely that before October 3, the dateline for the registration of candidates by the Central Election Committee, more contenders for presidency will appear. But it is hard to expect that anyone of them will have a better chance than Nazarbayev to succeed.