In an introductory panel on weak states, conflict, and state-building, Dr. Neil Macfarlane noted the growing importance of the Human Security dimension in observing the region, although its definition is often unclear. Dr. Axel Hadenius of Uppsala University noted that in spite of the Third wave of democratization sweeping through the world, there is a flat line of democratic development in the Middle East and Central Asia. He also boldly stated that the colored revolutions so far did not result in measurable democratic improvements. He also noted the controversial issue of religion is not very relevant in explaining the failure of democratic transformation in Eurasia. There is no difference between Christian and Muslim countries in public support for democracy. As Dr. Stephen Blank argued, the possibilities for regional conflict resolution in Central Asia and Caucasus exist, but with Russia supporting criminal proto-states in the Caucasus and Moldova, the outcome is bleak. Dr. Blank elaborated further that Russian neo-imperialism is harming its neighbors, and CIS as a Russian tool to promote its ideas is all too weak.

The second panel assessed Eurasian security prospects. Dr. Frederick Starr claimed that the security threats are not understood and interpreted correctly. Tension between analysts vs. advocates of regional security projects will take time to develop. Threats such as ethnic conflict, warlordism and drug trade are destabilizing the region. According to Dr. Starr, in spite of the problems, these issues are not fundamentally destabilizing the region; neither is an economic crisis taking place. Long-term threats that are remaining after discarding the abovementioned threats are poverty in the rural areas, corruption that has become endemic, the so-called democratization deficiency, and the radicalization of religious groups. The situation in the Caucasus is rather different. Dr. Alexander Rondeli spoke about the future increase of territorial conflicts in the area: Nagorno-Karabakh, Chechnya- secessionists have achieved partial victory. The political solution has very little prospect in the region. On a sobering note, Rondeli stated that the main lesson Caucasian governments had drawn from a decade of unresolved conflict was that the only way to solve their problems was through force. Analyzing the sources of conflict, he mentioned that there are many, ranging from the lack of positive political development to structural factors such as post/neo- colonialism to external and internal factors. In other words, a Russian ambition to extend and strengthen its influence in the south Caucasus is one of the major destabilizing factors. Another is the ethno-political dimension, which is deteriorated by the external involvement.

The Northern Caucasus security situation is more unstable than ever before. Dr. Emin Pain spoke on the spread of conflict intensity from Chechnya to Dagestan where organized resistance has taken the form of non-traditional Islamic structures driven by the so-called Wahhabi ideology. Kabardino-Balkaria is another area where official statistics show about 400 Wahhabi fighters mobilized against the Russian forces. However, the levels of penetration and number of attacks show that their numbers is much higher.

Ms. Zeyno Baran inaugurated the third panel on energy and economic security by bringing forward Turkey’s pivotal role in the future of the European energy supplies, as gas from Caucasus and Central Asia will be transported via Turkey into Europe. The discussion of Turkey’s future EU membership has thus received another dimension. Ms. Isabel Murray presented the general picture of the Russian-European energy interdependence. She held that the promotion of market policies, encouraging transparency and support of reform movements within Russia, with strong encouragement of investment projects, is the way to go. The ultimate goal, according to Ms. Murray, is reducing the EU’s energy dependency on OPEC. The Caspian region and Russia are future sources of European energy. Dr Mamuka Tsereteli, on the other hand, noted that there is both an opportunity and a need for the EU to dramatically reduce its dependence on Russian gas, as Russia cannot deliver Europe’s future energy demands. He further stated that “Europe needs to expand its economic markets for competitiveness, products and consumers”. The Caucasian energy transportation corridor (Baku-Ceyhan-Tbilisi pipeline) is evidence of the diversification of European energy supply. A greater European involvement in the Caucasus and Central Asia would strengthen the states’ independence, and is absolutely required for the development of these states as well as international stability, according to Dr. Tsereteli. Dr. Gareth Winrow concurred, maintaining the importance of the BTC pipeline, but pointing out that rapid development is necessary in order for the EU to fulfill its energy needs on time.

Another important security aspect covered in the conference’s third panel was narcotics and organized crime. As widely known, Afghanistan is the world’s biggest producer of opium. This great security threat has increased dramatically during last decade. Afghanistan can offer 500 metric tones of morphine and heroin to the world market yearly. The prices are also varying, the trafficker on the border of Afghanistan can buy 1 kilo of heroin for $3,500, and the same kilo in Stockholm will cost at least $100,000. Dr. Vladimir Fenopetov’s and the UNODOC’s calculation show that ca 25% of the trafficked drugs reach Europe. With those numbers in mind it is easy to realize that Afghanistan in many ways is a narcostate, as more than half of national economy comes from drug-related activity. Dr. Louise Shelley also mentioned the increased role of organized crime networks in the political development of Eurasia. She mentioned the link between crime and terrorism, not only in Central Asia but also in Russia and the Caucasus. Dr. Trifin Roule elaborated further on the topic of organized crime, mentioning the money laundering aspect as another security dimension. He also pointed out the difficult of controlling the predominantly cash-based economies of the region, thus preventing the tracking of illegal funds and illegal finances invested in legal parts of the economy.

The final aspect discussed in the conference was the threat of terrorism. Dr. Svante Cornell initiated by pointing out the correlation between drugs trafficking and conflict, thus forming the crime-terror nexus. Dr. Magnus Ranstorp explained the multi-faceted causes of terrorist activity, mentioning among other lack of democracy, failed/weak states, lack of capacity to control borders, state repression, rapid economic transformation, extremist ideologies, etc. Dr. Abdujabar Abduvakhitov nevertheless disagreed with Dr. Ranstorp by elaborating on terrorism as a global phenomenon, focusing his analysis of the causes to extremist ideology as the most important reason for terrorism. Furthermore, Dr. Pavel Baev discussed effort to reduce the terrorist threat as a point of departure for Vladimir Putin’s entire domestic politics. According to Dr. Baev, terrorism is a threat to Russia, solely linked to Chechnya. He states that the term counter-terrorism has much wider meaning in Russia, and essentially defines Putin’s system of power.

Wrapping up the conference, Dr. Starr filled the remaining gaps and concluded that Western passion for democratic representation is a serious force of instability in the region, adding nationalism as one of important causes of insecurity in Eurasia.

[Note: the conference proceedings will be published shortly on this website.]