During the conference, a representative of the Democracy and Civil Society Development Center ‘Armat’, Mr. Edward Aghajanov, an economist by training, gave a presentation on “The Economic Rhythm of the Region in the Wake of the BTC Oil Pipeline”. Mr. Aghajanov expressed his concern about Armenia being left out from the project and brought to the attention of the attendees that the Azerbaijani oil deal may, from an Armenian perspective, unfavorably influence the resolution of the Mountainous Karabakh conflict. According to Aghajanov, “Armenia had but one potential lever against the oil card: democracy.”

However, another conference participant, ACNIS analyst Alvard Barkhudarian, made a different argument during a presentation on “Speculations over BTC in the Region and Beyond.” Specifically she argued that “the pipeline is a guarantee for regional security and against war.” She further argued that, “…it is in Armenia\'s interests to have its neighbors economically developed and advanced.”

The Armenian Parliament also discussed the opening of the BTC oil pipeline and its potential consequences for Armenia and the region. According to a May 27th report by Arminfo news agency, the head of the parliamentary faction of the Republican Party of Armenia [RPA], Galust Saakyan stated that, “…the processes happening in the neighboring republic [Azerbaijan] cannot affect the situation in Armenia.” According to the same report, Mr. Saakyan said that “…the exploitation of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and Azerbaijan\'s economic development would have a favorable impact on the development of the entire region in general.”

The May 27th report from the Arminfo news agency also cited Armenian Revolutionary Federation -Dashnaktsutyun [ARFD] faction spokesman Levon Mkrtchyan, who stated that “…the neighbors’ efforts to sideline Armenia from the regional projects will boomerang against these countries since the difficult situation in which Armenia has found itself, because of its neighbors\' fault, hinders the development of the whole of the region.” Mr. Mkrtchyan continued, noting that, “… the exploitation of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline did not disturb the balance of forces in the region.”

Armenia’s Prime Minister Andranik Margaryan provided a different analysis. Referencing statements by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev regarding the future use of BTC oil profits to boost military spending, Margarian argued that Armenia must take this into account in setting its own military budget. According to a May 26th report by the ARKA news agency, Margayan stated that Armenia’s defense budget in the coming year would be “…as large as possible and necessary.”

Mr. Margaryan also argued that “Armenia has to find alternative ways to restore the regional balance of power, an alternative to BTC can be the Iran-Armenia gas pipeline, via which Armenian can transport gas to Europe via Georgia in the future.”

Additional commentary was provided by Dr. Vardan Grigoryan, an Armenian historian and political activist. Dr. Grigoryan argued that the opening of the BTC has, in effect, tied the hands of the Azerbaijani government which, as a result, will not be able to use war to resolve the Mountainous Karabakh issue. Dr. Grigoryan stated that “the USA and the oil companies that are acting on its orders have not constructed the Baku-Ceyhan for the benefit of the leadership of Azerbaijan, but to resolve their own geopolitical and geo-economic problems. So transforming any expected economic privilege into military and economic domination for the leadership of Azerbaijan may directly damage USA interests in the region.” He further stated that, “For this reason Azerbaijan should forget about any military revenge [against Armenia] and pin its hopes only on the prospect of a peaceful and quiet return of Karabakh.” He further argued that the opening of the BTC oil pipeline is going to pressure the Azerbaijani government to democratize before any settlement of the Mountainous Kharabakh issue could be accomplished. He concluded his article by saying, “And who should the settlement of this problem start with if not with the Aliyev clan, the power of which has become an obstacle in the way of democratizing of the Caucasus-Central Asia region?” According to him, “…the functioning of the Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline does not open the way for a pro-Azerbaijani settlement of the Karabakh issue but simply reveals the big hole that Heydar Aliyev has dug for his son Ilham.”