By Lydia Sawatsky

Azerbaijan is increasingly stepping away from Russian influence as Russia’s military dominance in the Caucasus slips due to its involvement in the war in Ukraine. Baku has responded to these changing dynamics through a series of policy measures, including border closures, restrictions on Russian soft power, and surveillance of Russian-aligned organizations.  This shift has only grown more visible in recent weeks as Vice President JD Vance made a historic visit to Armenia and Azerbaijan, and President Aliyev met Ukrainian President Zelensky for the third time at the Munich Security Conference. At Munich, Aliyev publicly accused Russia of deliberately striking the Embassy of Azerbaijan in Kyiv on three separate occasions, underscoring just how strained the Baku/Moscow relationship has become. 

BACKGROUND:

Historical episodes of Soviet and Russian military intervention in Azerbaijan, including the Soviet Union’s crackdown on Azerbaijani protesters in Baku in January 1990 and Moscow’s long-standing support for Armenia, have reinforced Azerbaijan’s efforts to safeguard its sovereignty. Azerbaijan has often maneuvered around the consequences of openly opposing Kremlin positions by maintaining a cautious and cordial relationship with Moscow despite recurring tensions. Even when differences emerged over regional conflicts or broader geopolitical alignments, Baku prioritized diplomatic stability within the structural constraints imposed by Russia’s dominant role in the South Caucasus. 

Azerbaijan gained regional confidence as Turkey stepped into the role of security guarantor. The alliance with Turkey signaled to Baku that it would not face regional threats alone. The Shusha Declaration promised military support against any foreign aggression. Military cooperation with Turkey intensified after Iran’s direct provocation of Azerbaijan by conducting a military exercise on the border simulating a military crossing of the Araz River. In response, Turkish troops, along with the Turkish Chief of the General Staff, participated in a similar joint drill to cross the river. Turkey’s promise of military aid and quick responses to military provocations reinforced Azerbaijan’s sense of security and showed Russia’s declining role as the primary regional power in the Caucasus. 

Despite diverging interests, Baku largely accommodated Moscow’s continued involvement in regional security affairs to preserve stability. Following Azerbaijan’s victory in the Second Karabakh War in 2020, Russia rapidly deployed “peacekeeping” forces to the region. Similarly, the 2022 Declaration of Allied Cooperation with Russia, signed two days before the Ukraine war, is most revealing for the reaction it provoked rather than its substance, as it sparked concerns that Azerbaijan was drifting back into Moscow’s sphere of influence. In practice, however, Baku’s foreign policy remained largely unchanged, showing how Azerbaijan used symbolic accommodation to create misleading perceptions of alignment. 

Russia’s withdrawal of its peacekeeping forces from Karabakh in 2024, largely driven by mounting military demands in Ukraine, marked a critical turning point in Azerbaijan’s assessment of its regional environment. The redeployment signaled a reduced Russian capacity to sustain its military presence in the region, giving Baku a window to increase its autonomy. While Azerbaijan did not pursue openly anti-Russian policies, Moscow’s growing preoccupation elsewhere encouraged a more assertive approach to Azerbaijani national sovereignty. 

Beyond the military realm, Russia’s persecution of ethnic minorities has grown more visible due to widespread social media use, as reports of unlawful arrests of Azerbaijani citizens, beatings across Russia, and Chechnya’s deportation of Azerbaijani nationals to forcibly fight in Ukraine have become increasingly more common. Azerbaijanis have become more vocal in voicing their anger, with one journalist going so far as to call for the destruction of the Embassy of Russia in Baku. 

Azerbaijan’s frustration with Russia intensified significantly after Russia shot down Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 over Grozny, the capital of Chechnya, in December 2024, allegedly mistaking the passenger aircraft for a Ukrainian drone. After the plane was hit, Russian authorities denied it permission to land and redirected it to the Kazakh city of Aktau, an action analysts suggest was meant to cover up the incident, possibly hoping the plane would crash into the Caspian Sea. The previously maintained cordial and diplomatic relationship between Chechnya and Azerbaijan devolved so rapidly that when Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov tried to call Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev on December 30, Aliyev refused his call. 

The crash of the Azerbaijani airline and the diplomatic fallout underscore why this matters for Azerbaijan. The incident exposed the risks of non-transparent and highly centralized security structures operating near its border. Azerbaijan’s refusal to allow the issue to be dismissed and its insistence on formal acknowledgment and compensation reinforced Baku’s insistence on formal state accountability rather than relying on informal crisis management.

As Azerbaijani-Russian relations were slowly returning to normal, Azerbaijan agreed to the US-backed TRIPP plan, moving towards closer economic ties with the U.S. and the West. Aliyev further raised the stakes at the February 2026 Munich Security Conference, publicly accusing Russia of deliberately striking Azerbaijan's Kyiv embassy three times in 2025, even after Baku had provided the coordinates of its diplomatic missions. Azerbaijan again directly and publicly criticized Russia, with little of the political cordiality that Azerbaijan has extended towards Russia in the past.

IMPLICATIONS:

These developments have coincided with a broader set of Azerbaijani policy adjustments. Azerbaijan's government is clearly considering the potential instability caused by its policies toward Russia. To mitigate the fallout, Azerbaijan is heavily restricting contact and influence with Russia in numerous ways. 

Despite its geographic proximity to Russia, Azerbaijan has separated itself significantly from its neighbor in the last few years. Azerbaijan closed its borders with all neighbors in 2020 during the COVID pandemic and has kept each of them closed for political reasons, severing many regional ties. Citizens who once crossed the border regularly to shop or visit relatives now face near-total separation. There are no longer direct flights from Baku International Airport to the Dagestani cities of Grozny, Makhachkala, or Derbent, forcing travelers to travel instead through Moscow, often with long layovers. This not only makes it more difficult to travel but also significantly raises the financial burden, with an average ticket costing around $500, which is more than the average monthly salary for most Azerbaijanis, especially outside the capital. This means that there is much less flexibility in migration across the border. 

Azerbaijani attitudes toward Russification and Kremlin narratives have also shifted dramatically.  Leaked Kremlin documents dated to December 2025 acknowledge this reality, noting that Russian-speaking Azerbaijani citizens now face increased security surveillance and that organizations protecting Russian minority interests have been eliminated or restricted to the purpose of promoting interethnic harmony between Russians and Azerbaijanis. 

Russia’s inability to pivot away from Ukraine or divert resources to the Caucasus has driven Azerbaijan’s move away from its neighbor and toward greater independence. This strategy will protect Azerbaijan from potential unrest in Russia spilling over into its borders and accelerate Azerbaijan's pivot away from Russian soft power toward diverse global partnerships. The border closures, flight cancellations, and restrictions on Russian influence are more than temporary precautions: they reflect a permanent change.

Azerbaijan has already structurally insulated itself from Russia’s northern periphery, and recent shocks have only revealed how far that decoupling has gone. Recent tensions did not create Azerbaijan’s distancing, but exposed Azerbaijan’s preexisting insulation strategy as it enacted restrictions on cross-border movement, limited soft power influence, and asserted itself diplomatically. Russia is an increasingly unpredictable and unstable partner, and though Azerbaijan remains economically and geographically tied to Russia, it can now better pursue multi-vector diplomacy and diversification. Azerbaijan’s recent actions and diplomatic posture suggest not a geopolitical realignment, but a calculated effort to reduce exposure to instability stemming from Russia while preserving functional interstate relations.

CONCLUSIONS:

Ultimately, Azerbaijan’s response to Russia’s declining power is a policy of calculated insulation. This shift is structural rather than merely reactionary, as the permanent closure of land borders and the dismantling of transport links to the North Caucasus serve as a physical barrier against potential Russian instability and soft power.

Measures such as increased surveillance of Russian-speaking citizens and the removal of pro-Kremlin interest groups indicate a shift away from Russian soft power toward a new era of regional cooperation with Central Asia and Turkey, as well as Western-led global partnerships. Vice President J.D. Vance's February 2026 visit to the South Caucasus signals the kind of high-level Western engagement that Azerbaijan and its neighbors are now actively courting. While the fundamental, pragmatic ties between Baku and Moscow are unlikely to fully rupture, Azerbaijan is working harder than ever to decouple its security from Russia’s influence. While Azerbaijan is unlikely to fully sever its ties with Russia, given enduring geographic and economic constraints, its current diplomatic trajectory marks an unprecedented departure from decades of accommodating Russian regional dominance, opening a timely window for deeper Western engagement and the advancement of a more durable strategic partnership in the South Caucasus.

AUTHOR’S BIO: 

Lydia Sawatsky is a researcher with American Foreign Policy Council’s Central Asia-Caucasus Institute. A recent graduate of Wheaton College, she grew up in Sumqayit, Azerbaijan, and has spent extensive time in the Caucasus and Central Asia. She previously worked with International Literacy and Development (ILAD) in Baku, Azerbaijan, researching access to education for Afghan and Pakistani refugees residing in the country.

By Laura Thornton

Armenians head to the polls on June 7 to elect all 101 members of parliament at a time of critical regional and geopolitical consequences. Following the 2018 Velvet Revolution and Nagorno-Karabakh war, the country has embarked on a new path of democratic reform and foreign policy alignments. Previously dependent on Russia for security guarantees and economic stability, the government of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is now forging new ties with the European Union (EU) and United States, while redefining the country’s relationship with both Azerbaijan and Turkey. The election presents a choice beyond minor policy options but a vision for the country’s governance and geopolitical alignment. Given the stakes, both domestic and foreign actors have intensified their tactics, manipulating existing vulnerabilities, and present serious threats to the election process.

BACKGROUND:

The election is taking place at a historic pivot point for Armenia’s positioning in the region and beyond. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Armenia has tied to Russia militarily, economically, and ideologically. Armenia has been part of the Eurasian Economic Union, a Russian initiative to ensure economic integration, and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russian-led security alliance. Russia has been Armenia’s largest supplier of military aid and key trading partner. Russia also owns key infrastructure in Armenia, including railways and telecommunications. However, Russia’s failure to defend Armenia during the 2020 and 2023 Nagorno-Karabakh conflicts damaged ties between the two states, with Yerevan suspending its participation in the CSTO and demanding the removal of Russian border troops. 

While turning away from Russia, the government has pursued European Union (EU) accession and signed a framework to implement the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), which aims to establish a transit route in the south Caucasus. Further, regional calculations have dramatically changed, paving the way for a redefined relationship with both Azerbaijan and Turkey, with a peace agreement being formed with the former and new border and trade discussions with the latter. 

Two main opposition blocs, which are closely tied to Russia, are challenging the ruling Civil Contract party of Pashinyan. The ruling party is running on “peace,” which it defines as continuing the negotiations with Azerbaijan and building closer ties with the EU and U.S. The opposition blocs oppose the government’s peace agreement, accuse the government of being under Azerbaijani and Turkish control, and say EU goals are unrealistic.

While the political contest does not fall along neat “pro-West vs. pro-Russian” divides as in some frontline democracies, and none of the viable parties embraces a full break from Russia (mindful that the plurality of Armenians believe Russia is the country’s most important political partner), the parties do differ significantly on the nature of the relationship. The Kremlin has taken note and activated its hybrid warfare playbook, employed in Georgia, Moldova, and other democracies, to defeat the ruling party.  

The political landscape is also shaped by a fierce conflict between the government and Church leaders. Church leaders – headed by Karekin II, the Supreme Patriarch and Catholicos of All Armenians – accuse the Pashinyan government of “losing” the war in Nagorno-Karabakh and have called for the Prime Minister’s resignation. In turn, the government has prosecuted several bishops on charges ranging from “calling for a coup” to drug charges, prosecutions which many independent groups believe lack strong evidence. Opposition parties have seized on this issue, criticizing the government and defending the Church.

IMPLICATIONS:

Given the partisan divergence on the country’s foreign policy orientation, the geopolitical stakes in the election are high, activating malign actors. The Kremlin sees clearly the threat of the ruling Civil Contract, which has pledged more decoupling from Russia and greater alignment with Europe and the U.S. While recently on a pre-election assessment mission to Yerevan, government officials, civil society representatives, diplomats, and observers described Russia’s hybrid warfare in the country as “unprecedented.” There was also widespread agreement that the country was not adequately prepared for the threat, made worse by the elimination of USAID and its support in bolstering the country’s defenses.

Information is central to the Kremlin’s strategy. Russia dominates the airwaves, with Russian channels freely broadcast on national television, and social media, where there are few regulations. Narratives focus on Armenia’s need for Russian security, and how the Pashinyan government has ceded sovereignty to Azerbaijan, and for the Russian market. Emphasis is on Armenia as part of Russia’s sphere of influence. Disinformation about elections, institutions, and democracy is prevalent, particularly sowing distrust in the integrity of the upcoming election. Russian information campaigns bolster opposition talking points, such as those accusing the government of suppressing speech and political prosecutions.   

The Kremlin has infiltrated charities, movements, and foundations, such as the “Foundation to Battle Injustice,” established by the late Wagner Head Yevgeniy Prigozhin. Russia and Armenian Church leaders are also in lockstep, each amplifying the other’s attacks on the government, messaging on traditional values, and criticism of Western institutions. Russia has also mobilized the Armenian diaspora to vote in previous elections, paying for transport and vote buying. Russian banks and businesses operate throughout the country making financing of influence operations and proxies easy. 

It is widely acknowledged in Yerevan that the country is not adequately prepared to defend against this threat. Government bodies are poorly resourced and often lack the mandate, technology, and tools to investigate or conduct counter efforts. There are also legal loopholes, such as the lack of regulation on third parties, which frequently engage in political activity. Civil society groups, research institutes, and independent media – central to building resilience to hybrid threats – are also poorly resourced, particularly since the elimination of USAID.

Electoral victory for the main opposition blocs, the beneficiaries of Russian influence, would signify a reversal on the country’s current trajectory. Russian citizen Samvel Karapetyan, owner of the Russian Tashir Group, founded the opposition Strong Armenia. The other main opposition bloc, Armenia Alliance, is led by former President Robert Kocharyan who serves on the board of directors for Sistema PJSFC, one of Russia’s largest investment companies. In addition to their obvious Russian ties, the parties reject Pashinyan’s peace agreement (and do not offer a clear alternative), do not approve of TRIPP, and believe Armenia is “not ready” for the EU. 

According to recent polling, Civil Contract is polling at 24 percent, Strong Armenia at nine percent, and everyone else below the threshold. This polling also shows the majority of support for the ruling party comes from older (56+) and more urban citizens. Importantly, those who select Civil Contract are far more likely to identify as “pro-Western” (73 percent) while those who support Strong Armenia believe the country’s policy should be “pro-Russian” (71 percent).

CONCLUSIONS:

Armenia’s election could lead to the continuation of the country’s new foreign alignment course, forging new economic and security relationships and exerting greater freedom from Russian control. Alternatively, the country could abandon this direction, taking a closer path to that of neighboring Georgia, which has alienated the West and forged closer ties with Russia, China, and Iran. At a time of upheaval and uncertainty in the region, a strong alliance of pro-Russian governments along the vertical axis from Moscow to Tehran would have significant consequences. It could block Western interests in and access to the region and beyond, lead to new destabilization between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and embolden Russia to act elsewhere. 

Enhanced U.S. and European support would help fortify the elections from malign actors through increased technical assistance, intelligence, financing, and training to Armenian partners.

AUTHOR’S BIO: 

Laura Thornton has spent more than 30 years in the democracy, governance, and security space both as a practitioner and policy and advocacy expert. She lived more than two decades in Asia and the former Soviet Union and has held positions at the McCain Institute, the German Marshall Fund, International IDEA, and the National Democratic Institute.

By Tomáš Baranec and Giorgi Khishtovani

Long-term rapid GDP growth is one of the pillars on which the Georgian government builds its legitimacy amid social and political instability following the October 2024 parliamentary elections. The numbers seemingly confirm the government’s argument. Georgia's GDP growth was 7.8 percent in 2023 and 9.7 percent in 2024. In 2025, overall growth is expected at 7.5 percent and International financial institutionsexpect GDP growth at 5-5.5 percent for 2026. The growth of recent years, however, was driven by several temporary and random factors rather than structural reforms. Numerous indicators suggest that growth in 2025 was artificially inflated and that the Georgian economy is in fact entering a turbulent phase.

BACKGROUND:

Georgia’s high GDP growth after 2020 was driven by three primary and two secondary factors. The first, most short-term, primary factor was natural growth after a sharp decline during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. After a contraction caused by the pandemic in 2020, when GDP fell by 6.3 percent, GDP grew by 10.6 percent the following year. The economy grew rapidly, primarily due to the fading of the initial shock from the pandemic and adaptation of the labour market and supply chains to the new pandemic reality.

While the effect of adaptation to the pandemic gradually faded, two other strong primary factors of GDP growth emerged, both associated with the Russian invasion of Ukraine in the spring of 2022. These were the mass arrival of Russian citizens and the opening of a transport corridor for sanctioned goods to Russia via Georgia. Following 2022, more than 80,000 Russian citizens settled in Georgia, mostly IT professionals, small businesspeople, and other members of higher-income groups. Their arrival stimulated overall demand, particularly growth in housing prices and development of the construction and IT sectors. In addition, Russian capital in the form of deposits from Russian citizens began flowing into Georgian banks in large quantities in 2022.

After 2022, Georgia became one of several transport corridors for the (re)export of sanctioned goods to Russia. Official statistics indicate Georgia’s role as an export corridor for passenger cars. In 2025, Kyrgyzstan (export from Georgia US$ 1.49 billion) and Kazakhstan (export from Georgia US$ 909 million) became Georgia’s main trading partners, and the main official export destinations for passenger cars from Georgia. The export value of this commodity reached US$ 2.81 billion. Passenger cars were also the largest import item to Georgia with a total value of US$ 3.87 billion. It should be noted that the “Georgian corridor” is partly absent from Kyrgyz and Kazakh statistics. While there is an immense increase of Georgian exports to Asia, the corresponding imports from Georgia are missing in the statistics of these countries. For instance, Kyrgyzstan’s official imports from Georgia are at least ten times lower than exports from Georgia to Kyrgyzstan.

The war in Ukraine also became the impetus for the emergence of two secondary factors of GDP growth in Georgia: foreign students and Russian tourists. Before the war, universities in eastern Ukraine were the main competitors of Georgian universities for international students, especially from India. After the war broke out, large numbers of students instead came to Georgia, increasing by an average of 20 percent year-on-year. In the 2024-2025 academic year, 37,100 international students studied in Georgia, more than double the 17,500 foreign students in Georgian universities in 2021-2022. This factor is an often overlooked yet significant secondary driver of Georgia’s GDP growth over the past few years.

Moreover, unlike many Western countries, Georgia has not banned flights to Russia, thereby stimulating growth in tourism. Russians represented 23.32 percent of total visits to the country in 2025.

Increased state revenues are an additional element that have contributed to strong growth figures and increased government spending in the years 2021-2025. Central government tax revenues rose from US$ 3.5 billion in 2021 to US$ 8.0 billion in 2025, reflecting a 128 percent increase, while state budget appropriations increased from US$ 6.19 billion to 10.3 billion, a 66.3 percent rise.  

IMPLICATIONS:

Several trends indicate that the main drivers of Georgia’s growth have already peaked and are beginning to fade. The economic growth in 2025 was likely inflated mainly by the International Company Status Act adopted in 2020. The Act grants certain types of companies in the IT and maritime sectors the opportunity to qualify for significant tax breaks. The changes adopted in 2020 allow foreign IT companies to register in Georgia, having to pay only a 5 percent corporate tax and 5 percent on employee wages. The ultimate catalyst for growth under the legislation was the arrival of Russian and Belarusian IT experts in 2022. In parallel with this law, the government also introduced simplified permanent residence for employees in the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sector in 2025.

In the third quarter of 2025, the ICT sector grew by 21.1 percent; in the second quarter of 2025, by 37.1 percent; and in the first quarter of 2025, by 28.6 percent. In the third quarter of 2025, the sector reached 7.4 percent of the country’s GDP, from only 3 percent in 2020. While the state’s revenues from this scheme are rather insignificant, it does contribute to inflating growth statistics.

At the same time, almost all sectors relevant to the real economy and the state budget recorded a decrease in growth or a decline in the third quarter of 2025: energy (-3.3 percent), agriculture (-5.4 percent), construction (0.2 percent), trade (+3 percent) and manufacturing (+2,5 percent).

Other trends also contribute to the slowdown of the real Georgian economy. The number of people employed in the Georgian economy has decreased (most probably due to emigration) in the third quarter of 2025. Meanwhile, growth rates of imports are decreasing as compared to 2024. 

While state budget revenues increased by approximately 25 percent in 2024, they increased by only 10 percent in 2025, with 4 percent offset by current inflation. These trends contradict the estimated 2025 GDP growth rate.

The Georgian economy’s growth was not only an important PR tool for the Georgian government but also a practical means for maintaining its public support in the critical years of 2024 and 2025.

During its time in power, Georgian Dream has created a self-dependent layer of civil servants and citizens receiving various social benefits. Over the past two years, the ruling party has further strengthened their loyalty by increasing salaries and benefits. This was permitted by strong economic figures in 2022-2024. After 2025, Georgian Dream is starting to run short of resources to continue buying the support of these groups.

Most probably, the Georgian government is aware of the real slowdown in economic growth and the threats it poses to its legitimacy. It is currently taking several steps to address this threat. In the summer of 2025, the National Bank of Georgia managed to restore its dollar reserves to the same level as in 2024, before it started to sharply sell US$. 

Keeping a stable currency is one of Georgian Dream’s main priorities. The government has also become more careful in spending budgetary funds in comparison to previous years, and is actively building a financial reserve to limit the impact of slowing economic growth.

Georgian Dream’s ability to prepare for a period of economic turbulence will depend on several factors. These factors cannot currently be estimated accurately, however, the duration of Western sanctions against Russia stands out among the most relevant. Maintaining Georgia’s relevance as a transport corridor to Russia would significantly help Tbilisi weather the upcoming economic turbulence. On the other hand, a quick resolution of the conflict in Ukraine and the restoration of trade relations between Moscow and the West could, indirectly but significantly, weaken Georgian Dream’s position.

CONCLUSIONS:

The slowdown in the Georgian economy’s real growth will likely be the next big challenge for the ruling Georgian Dream party in the coming years, following the protest year of 2025. Unlike the mass protests, a significant deterioration in the population’s socio-economic situation could undermine support for the ruling party, even among its core electorate. Several current government actions indicate that Georgia’s de facto leader, Bidzina Ivanishvili, is aware of this threat and is taking steps to maintain the government’s capacity to support the existing social system. However, several key factors in this direction are shaped by other actors and trends and depend only marginally on the actions of the Georgian government. Of these, an end to the war in Ukraine could have the most severe negative impact. Moreover, the data accounted for here precedes the recent outbreak of war in Iran. The fallout from the conflict adds uncertainty to an already precarious economic situation in Georgia.

AUTHOR’S BIO: 

Tomáš Baranec is a Research Fellow and Head of the Caucasus Program of the Slovak think tank Strategic Analysis. He currently works as a field researcher on the Georgian-Ossetian ABL. Tomas studied Balkan, Central European and Eurasian Studies at Charles University in Prague. Giorgi Khishtovani is a Full Professor and Head of the Department of Finance at Ilia State University (Georgia). He holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Bremen (Germany), an MSc in Business Administration, and an LLM in Law from the University of Trier (Germany). His research focuses on political economy, governance, economic and fiscal policy.

By Ebru Akgün

Armenia is currently navigating its most significant geopolitical shift since its independence in 1991. The collapse of the traditional security architecture, which was built on the pillar of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), has forced Yerevan to embark on a perilous journey of "sovereign recalibration." By embracing Western civilian security instruments—most notably the European Union Monitoring Mission in Armenia (EUMA)—while simultaneously hosting legacy Russian military infrastructure, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s administration has adopted a high-stakes "dual-track" strategy. However, this hedging mechanism is reaching its structural exhaustion. As regional geopolitics shift toward binary alignments and the South Caucasus becomes a primary theater for broader EU-Russia competition, Armenia's tactical flexibility is increasingly challenged by the reality of asymmetric pressures.

BACKGROUND:

​The central challenge for Armenia’s transition is the "security guarantee deficit." While Yerevan has successfully frozen its participation in the CSTO, citing the alliance’s failure to respond to incursions into Armenian sovereign territory in 2021 and 2022, it has not yet secured a formal military alternative. The Western response, though diplomatically robust, remains focused on "soft power" and monitoring rather than "hard power" defense obligations.

​The EUMA's mandate has been extended until 2028, providing a layer of "visibility-based deterrence." However, from a military perspective, a civilian mission cannot function as a permanent shield. Unlike the formal mutual defense obligations found in Article 4 of the CSTO treaty—which Armenia now views as a "failed promise"—the EU mission carries no legal mandate to intervene in the event of an armed conflict. The presence of European monitors on the border with Azerbaijan may increase the political cost of escalation, but it does not provide the physical protection necessary to stop an offensive.

​For Western policymakers, Armenia serves as a critical case study of the limits of small-state hedging under asymmetric pressure. The lack of a "hard" security partner leaves Yerevan in a state of strategic ambiguity. While France and the United States have increased their security assistance, these relationships are characterized by bilateral cooperation agreements rather than mutual defense pacts. This gap between monitoring and defense creates a period of strategic vulnerability that regional actors could exploit, especially if the diplomatic cost of military escalation is perceived as manageable by Baku or Moscow.

​A critical but often under-analyzed component of Armenia’s new security architecture is its integration into Western-backed transit networks, specifically the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) corridor. Launched as a flagship initiative to decouple the South Caucasus from Russian and Iranian monopolies, the TRIPP implementation framework signed in early 2026 aims to integrate Armenia into a Western-secured transit network.

​The TRIPP initiative seeks to link Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenian territory (specifically the Syunik province) under Armenian sovereign and customs control. By promoting this "Crossroads of Peace" vision, the United States is attempting to create a vested economic interest in Armenia’s territorial integrity. If major Western corporations and U.S.-backed contractors become primary stakeholders in Armenia’s infrastructure, the logic follows that Washington will have a more explicit incentive to ensure the region's stability.

​However, the TRIPP corridor brings its own set of risks. While it offers an economic lifeline and a potential implicit security shield, it places Armenia at the heart of a "corridor war" between the West, Russia, and Iran. Tehran remains deeply wary of any increased Western presence in Syunik, which it views as its "red line" for northern connectivity. Meanwhile, Moscow views any corridor not controlled by its own FSB border guards as a violation of the November 2020 ceasefire arrangements. Therefore, the TRIPP corridor is as much a security challenge as it is an opportunity, requiring Armenia to balance American ambitions against the immediate geographical realities of its neighbors.

​Armenia’s military modernization efforts represent another pillar of its diversification strategy. Recent contracts for French GM200 radar systems and Mistral anti-air missiles, alongside the procurement of Indian Akash-1S missile systems and Pinaka rockets, mark a decisive break from the decades-long monopoly of the Russian defense industry.

​However, "buying Western" does not automatically translate into "Western security." Armenia faces an immense technical challenge known as the "interoperability trap." The nation’s current command-and-control (C2) architecture is built on Soviet-legacy systems that are historically transparent to Russian military intelligence. Integrating NATO-standard French radars or high-tech Indian artillery into this legacy environment is not just a logistical hurdle; it is a profound security risk.

​Without an entirely independent and secure C2 network—a project that would require billions of dollars and years of specialized training—Armenia’s new hardware remains vulnerable to electronic jamming or data interception by legacy Russian systems. Furthermore, the logistical chain for these Western systems is fragile. Unlike Russian equipment, which is supported by established rail links, Western hardware must be transported through Georgia’s ports or via complex Iranian routes, making the supply chain vulnerable to external political pressures. This technical sovereignty is the missing link in Armenia's military transition.

​The strategic direction of Armenia will face its ultimate domestic test in the upcoming June 7, 2026 parliamentary elections. These polls will function as a definitive referendum on the "Western pivot" and the "Fourth Republic" vision proposed by the Pashinyan administration. Public opinion in Armenia is currently characterized by "ambiguity fatigue." While trust in Western institutions has surged, a significant portion of the population remains skeptical that monitoring missions and "economic corridors" like TRIPP can replace the hard security guarantees once expected from Russia.

​The 2026 elections will be fought on two fronts: economic prosperity and national survival. If the government cannot demonstrate that its pivot has brought tangible security improvements or significant economic relief through projects like TRIPP before the elections, the opposition—likely backed by Russian narratives of "restoring traditional ties for safety"—may gain significant traction. The outcome of the 2026 polls will determine whether Armenia continues its pursuit of sovereignty through Western integration or is forced into a strategic reversal. The memory of the 2020 and 2023 conflicts looms large, and the electorate's patience for "strategic patience" is wearing thin.

IMPLICATIONS:

​Despite the rhetoric of "de-coupling," the physical and economic reality of Russian influence in Armenia remains a formidable obstacle. Russia still owns a majority of Armenia’s natural gas infrastructure through Gazprom Armenia and plays a critical role in the operation of the Metsamor nuclear power plant. To counter this, the European Union has pledged $500 million to enhance Armenia’s energy security and diversification, but the transition will take years.

​This economic asymmetry gives Moscow a "soft-kill" capability. The Kremlin does not need to launch a military intervention to destabilize Armenia; it can achieve similar results through "technical" border closures at the Lars crossing, energy price hikes, or logistical sabotage. The withdrawal of Russian FSB border guards from Zvartnots Airport was a symbolic victory, but Russian units still maintain a presence along the borders with Turkey and Iran. Any move that Moscow perceives as an "over-pivot" could trigger a devastating economic retaliation that the Armenian state is currently ill-equipped to handle.

​In this complex chess game, the role of Iran cannot be ignored. Tehran views the Syunik province as its essential gateway to the north. Any implementation of corridors—whether TRIPP or the Russian-backed Zangezur version—that changes the border status or introduces NATO-linked security actors is considered a "red line" by Iran. Armenia must navigate its pivot toward the West without alienating its southern neighbor, which remains its only other physical gateway to the world. This necessitates a delicate balance: engaging with the U.S. on TRIPP while reassuring Tehran that Armenia’s sovereign control over the route remains absolute and non-negotiable.

CONCLUSIONS:

Armenia is currently in a race against time. The dual-track strategy has provided essential short-term breathing room, allowing the state to begin the slow process of military modernization and diplomatic diversification. However, as the 2026 elections approach and the regional environment becomes more binary, the luxury of ambiguity is disappearing.

​For Armenia to survive as a sovereign actor, it must bridge the gap between "monitoring" and "defense." This requires moving beyond symbolic gestures toward a robust institutional framework that accounts for the state’s structural vulnerabilities. The TRIPP corridor and Western arms contracts are steps in the right direction, but they are not panaceas. Ultimately, Armenia’s ability to sustain its independence will depend on whether its Western partners are willing to provide actionable security pathways that go beyond binoculars and political statements. In a region where hard power still dictates the terms of sovereignty, Armenia’s "dual-track" must eventually find a single, solid, and defensible destination.

AUTHOR’S BIO: 

Ebru Akgün is an independent researcher specializing in the South Caucasus, regional security architecture, and transportation corridors. Her work focuses on the intersection of infrastructure development, military modernization, and geopolitical risk analysis in Eurasia. She actively monitors the evolving dynamics between Armenia, its neighbors, and global power enters. You can follow her latest research and professional updates via http://linkedin.com/in/ebruakgun

By Davit Gasparyan

Escalating tensions between the Armenian government and senior figures within the Armenian Apostolic Church are more than a domestic institutional dispute. The ongoing confrontation demonstrates Armenia’s broader geopolitical recalibration and growing concerns within Yerevan that Russian influence continues to operate through religious and cultural networks. While the Armenian Apostolic Church remains one of the country’s most trusted and historically significant institutions, the political behavior of certain ecclesiastical elites has intensified debates over sovereignty, national security, and foreign interference. The dispute is an example of how religious institutions across Russia’s neighboring countries can become entangled in geopolitical competition, particularly amid Armenia’s evolving foreign policy orientation and Russia’s continued reliance on soft power mechanisms.

BACKGROUND:

Relations between the Armenian government and the Armenian Apostolic Church have deteriorated significantly in recent years and particularly recent months, with public disagreements increasingly centered on Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s allegations of corruption, political interference, and questions surrounding the Church’s institutional accountability. While these tensions have often been portrayed as domestic disputes over governance and reform, Armenian political leadership has also framed the issue in broader geopolitical terms.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has explicitly linked his government’s concerns regarding church leadership to national security considerations. During a parliamentary question-and-answer session, Pashinyan stated that he “does not need a Catholicos who will obey him,” but rather one who “will not obey a senior lieutenant of a foreign special service” or report to foreign intelligence actors. Such remarks suggest that the Armenian government views elements within church leadership as potential conduits for external political influence rather than solely domestic institutional actors.

The Armenian Apostolic Church occupies a uniquely influential position in Armenian society. For centuries, it has served as a pillar of national identity, preserving Armenian cultural, linguistic, and spiritual continuity through periods of foreign domination, including Ottoman and Soviet rule. Public trust in the Church remains consistently high, making it one of the country’s most respected institutions according to the Caucasus Barometer, outperforming political parties and figures. This legitimacy, however, also renders the Church a powerful societal actor vulnerable to political instrumentalization.

Historically, segments of the Church’s senior leadership have maintained close institutional and symbolic ties with the Russian Orthodox Church and the Russian state. These connections reflect broader historical patterns in which former Armenian political elites aligned closely with Moscow during Armenia’s post-Soviet transition and subsequent security dependence on Russia. Such relationships have periodically reinforced Russia’s ideological narratives across the region.

These ties became particularly visible following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. That year, Catholicos of All Armenians Garegin II received a Russian state honor from President Vladimir Putin, clearly signaling the continuing closeness between Armenian and Russian religious leadership. More controversially, Archbishop Ezras (Nersisyan), head of the Russian Diocese of the Armenian Apostolic Church and brother of Garegin II, publicly blessed the Arbat Battalion in 2023, a military unit that includes ethnic Armenians associated with Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. The act carried strong symbolic significance, depicting how certain church elites have engaged in activities aligning with and supporting Russia’s wartime mobilization narratives against Ukraine. Pashinyan later alleged in 2025 that Archbishop Ezras was recruited by the KGB.

Russian religious and political actors have also reacted sharply to Armenian government criticism of church leadership. Representatives of the Russian Orthodox Church have condemned perceived state interference in ecclesiastical affairs, portraying Armenian government actions as part of broader efforts to undermine traditional spiritual institutions. Russian political commentators and politicians, including Sergei Lavrov, have similarly framed Armenian reform efforts as destabilizing and influenced by Western political agendas.

The dispute has extended beyond Armenia’s borders into Russian streets. Russian authorities have permitted Armenian diaspora communities to mobilize publicly around disputes between the Armenian government and church leadership and to publicly criticize Pashinyan’s actions. These developments show how the Russian regime has allowed and implicitly endorsed such attacks on Pashinyan as such demonstrations would require extensive scrutiny and approval by Russian authorities.

IMPLICATIONS:

The confrontation between the Armenian government and segments of church leadership reflects a broader geopolitical struggle over Russia’s influence within Armenian society. Religious institutions have historically served as important channels of Russian soft power across the post-Soviet region, enabling Moscow to shape political narratives, reinforce cultural alignment, and maintain influence even where formal political leverage declines.

Russia’s use of religious networks as instruments of influence has been particularly evident in Ukraine. Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the subsequent full-scale invasion in 2022, tensions between Ukrainian authorities and Moscow-affiliated religious structures intensified. Kyiv’s eventual support for the establishment of an independent Orthodox Church reflected concerns that religious institutions could function as vehicles for Russian political influence and intelligence activity. Similar dynamics have been observed in Moldova, where Moscow-aligned religious organizations have maintained strong societal influence and occasionally reinforced pro-Russian political narratives. In Georgia, Russian-linked religious messaging has also been used to amplify conservative social discourse and skepticism toward Western integration.

Armenia’s current church-state tensions appear to follow comparable patterns. Pashinyan’s government has increasingly pursued foreign policy diversification, strengthening relations with the EU, the U.S., and regional partners while reducing reliance on Russian security and economic guarantees. These shifts have heightened the Armenian leadership’s sensitivity to domestic institutions perceived as linked to Moscow’s influence infrastructure.

Pashinyan has suggested that segments of church leadership have been used in forms of “hybrid warfare” targeting Armenian sovereignty. While such claims remain politically and legally contested and strongly rejected by church representatives, they highlight the degree to which religious institutions have become intertwined with national security discourse in Armenia. The framing reflects broader concerns within Armenian political circles that Russian influence persists through societal and cultural networks even as formal bilateral relations undergo strain.

The dispute also carries significant domestic political implications. Armenia’s 2026 parliamentary elections are expected to take place amid heightened geopolitical competition. Russia has historically demonstrated interest in influencing Armenian electoral processes and public discourse and there are reports that it already has commenced influence operations. Given the Armenian Apostolic Church’s deep societal legitimacy, internal church disputes could become politically mobilized, shaping electoral narratives and public perceptions of government legitimacy.

At the same time, aggressive state action against church leadership risks generating backlash among segments of Armenian society that view the Church as inseparable from national identity. Balancing institutional reform with respect for religious tradition will remain a very delicate political challenge for Armenian authorities. Certain Western human rights and religious organizations have already criticized the Pashinyan regime for its targeted crackdown on Armenian church members.

More broadly, Armenia’s experience demonstrates how religious institutions across Eurasia continue to operate at the intersection of identity, politics, and geopolitical competition. As Russia’s conventional political leverage in parts of the post-Soviet space declines, Moscow has increasingly relied on cultural and religious networks to preserve influence. Armenia’s internal church-state confrontation demonstrates how such networks can become focal points of broader geopolitical realignment.

CONCLUSIONS:

The escalating conflict between the Armenian government and senior figures within the Armenian Apostolic Church should be understood as both a domestic institutional dispute and a manifestation of broader geopolitical transformation. While the Church remains a foundational pillar of Armenian identity and social cohesion, the political, pro-Russian alignment of certain ecclesiastical elites has contributed to growing concerns regarding foreign influence.

Pashinyan’s confrontation with church leadership reflects Armenia’s efforts to redefine its geopolitical orientation and reduce Russian soft power penetration within Armenian society. The outcome of this struggle will likely influence not only Armenia’s internal political stability but also its future strategic alignment. As Armenia navigates a changing regional security environment on the eve of its 2026 Parliamentary elections, the interaction between religious authority, national identity, and external geopolitical competition will remain a critical factor shaping the country’s trajectory.

AUTHOR’S BIO: 

Davit Gasparyan researches security dynamics in the South Caucasus and Russia’s regional strategy. He conducts research with the Institute for Security and Analysis and previously served as a Russia researcher at the Institute for the Study of War, and has worked with the Carnegie Endowment and Caucasus Watch.