The political offensive against the U.S. diplomat shows the growing tensions in the country prior the November parliamentary elections. The ruling party YAP is worryingly watching the events in the post-Soviet republics of Kyrgyzstan, Ukraine and Georgia and seems increasingly concerned about a possible similar scenario in Azerbaijan. The speaker of parliament, Murtuz Aleskerov, warned that \"Azerbaijani authorities would never allow a velvet revolution to take place in the country.\" The deputy speaker Ziyafet Askerov added, \"Let no one think about other places,\" obviously referring to the recent events in Kyrgyzstan.

The opposition parties, meanwhile, have stepped up their preparation for the crucial elections. The recent release of seven opposition leaders from prison by President Ilham Aliyev’s amnesty added fuel to the fire. The major opposition parties – Democratic, Popular Front and Musavat – have started working on a list of unified candidates for all 124 constituencies in the country. Other opposition politicians, such as the leader of the Liberal Party Lala Shovkat Hajiyeva, leader of the National Independence Party Etibar Mamedov, and independent politicians Ali Masimov, Eldar Namazov have formed their own coalition to contest the race for Parliament.

While the opposition is dreaming of a velvet revolution and the authorities intensify their efforts to prevent it, many analysts believe that much will depend on the position of the international community. In the upcoming elections, the conditions are different than in the 2003 Presidential election, and one can already see the growing pressure on Baku from the international community to hold free and fair elections. This message was conveyed to the Azerbaijani authorities by the U.S. ambassador to the OSCE as well as the European Union and Reporters without Borders. The Council of Europe, meanwhile, has been working with Azerbaijani authorities to make changes to the election law as well as ensure the start of the Public TV.

The U.S. ambassador himself has refuted all accusations that he was plotting a velvet revolution in the country: “The US government does not believe in revolutions nor does it plan one in Azerbaijan.” Yet, Harnish did not stop short from lobbying for free and fair elections. Specifically, he focused on the issue of freedom of assembly. “I think it would be fair to say that the position of the U.S. government is that the freedom of assembly in Azerbaijan should be observed,” he said. After the violence that took place during the presidential elections in October 2003, public rallies have been prohibited in the country. The opposition claims that it hurts democracy and prevents them from meeting their voters. It seems, however, that the Azerbaijani authorities have softened up on this issue. “Opposition demonstrations will be allowed during the election campaign period,” said Ali Hasanov, the head of President\'s Office\'s political department in a recent interview to ANS TV. “But the opposition must also give assurances that the demonstrations will be peaceful.”

Whether the tensions between the ruling and opposition parties will end up in another crackdown by the authorities or a velvet revolution is a matter of time. But one active opposition member, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that, “The strength of the opposition parties is not as high as it was in 2003.”