Although Bagapsh officially won the October 3 election, he eventually agreed to a Moscow-brokered compromise after the tension over the election escalated nearly to the point of civil war. As part of the deal, his former rival, Raul Khajimba, became his running mate and received a great deal of power in the relationship. While the Georgian government was largely silent about the elections as a whole – and the scandal that followed – President Saakashvili spoke out in favor of Bagapsh as the rightful winner of an illegal election. Following the revote in January, the Georgian government strongly protested Russia’s involvement. Saakashvili reportedly did not offer congratulations to Bagapsh, and was quoted in the Georgian newspaper “The Messenger” as saying “We will congratulate ourselves when the territorial integrity of our state is restored.”

Until the December compromise between Bagapsh and Khajimba, Russia was portraying Bagapsh as a villain, placing all their support behind Khajimba. The fact that Bagapsh has a Georgian wife and once reportedly worked in Georgia also gave some hope he would be a more accessible partner in conflict resolution. But Bagapsh has gone out of his way – particularly since being voted into office with over 90% of the vote – to quiet any fears Moscow may have over his allegiance. He promised to increase Russian investments in Abkhazia and thanked the country for their help in maintaining peace. According to reports in the Georgian media, Bagapsh has made no comments favorable to the federal system being proposed by Tbilisi, and has repeatedly insisted that any meeting between Sokhumi and Tbilisi must be seen as a dialogue between two equal, independent nations. He also has maintained that no talks will take place as long as Saakashvili continues making bellicose statements.

The idea of a federal system is not completely popular with the Georgian population, either. Experts have been coming out of the woodwork for the past month, expounding on the system’s pluses and minuses, but average Georgians seem unconvinced it is the right path. Adding to the confusion is the pervasive opinion among citizens that former president Shevardnadze actually sold Abkhazia and South Ossetia to Russia for large sums of money.

The day before the revote, ethnic Georgians were kidnapped in an alleged attempt to invalidate the election by low voter turnout. Some of the victims were even taken from a village on the Georgian side of the Inguri River, which serves as a border between Abkhazia and Georgia. The eleven villagers taken from Ganmukhuri village in Georgia were quickly returned, but that did nothing to pacify their families or neighbors. Georgian troops were sent to patrol the border, in addition to local police. Villagers interviewed after the event reported that such events are commonplace and people live in fear of their Abkhaz neighbors across the river. The overriding view in Ganmukhuri was that no one will know peace – or have peace of mind – until Abkhazia is ‘returned’.

Recently more editorials have been published in Georgian media advising the government to be patient, expressing the viewpoint that the best way to win over Abkhazians is to present a strong economy and the chance for rewarding economic ties. David Darchiashvili, the director of the Open Society Institute in Georgia, recently wrote that while neither side wants a federal system, it is the best of the possible options. But he added that until Georgians and Abkhazians learn to trust each other again, there will be no chance for a compromise of any sort. In Ganmukhuri, villagers distrust their Abkhazian neighbors across the river to the extent they are even afraid to fish in the Inguri. In such an atmosphere of fear, a happy outcome in the near future seems unlikely.