Wednesday, 01 December 2004

WAR IN WAZIRISTAN

Published in Field Reports

By Daan van der Schriek (12/1/2004 issue of the CACI Analyst)

After the fall of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, in November 2001, several Taliban and Al-Qaida members managed to escape to the Pakistani tribal areas, where they found refuge amidst the local tribes – and a base to continue operations in Afghanistan. In September of last year, Pakistan started operations against these fighters. And although the deaths of dozens of militants is announced every week as a result of these operations and officials claim that only some 100 of an original 600 fighters are left in the area, there is little sign yet that the government has won the battle.
After the fall of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, in November 2001, several Taliban and Al-Qaida members managed to escape to the Pakistani tribal areas, where they found refuge amidst the local tribes – and a base to continue operations in Afghanistan. In September of last year, Pakistan started operations against these fighters. And although the deaths of dozens of militants is announced every week as a result of these operations and officials claim that only some 100 of an original 600 fighters are left in the area, there is little sign yet that the government has won the battle. Already, some 200 government forces have been killed, says the Peshawar-based Pakistani journalist Rahimullah Yousafzai, who predicts that the army “will continue to suffer.”

And this is because the army is no longer facing only terrorists and Taliban, but also the tribes of Waziristan, who have become alienated by the military operations and punitive economic blockades targeting their region. From the outset, says Yousafzai, the government wanted not only to flush out terrorists, but also to bring the notoriously lawless Tribal Areas under central control. Perhaps the latter aim was even more important than the former, as the area is not as important for Al-Qaida and the Taliban as the province of Baluchistan – or indeed the country’s big cities. “They haven’t captured anybody of importance from Al-Qaida in Waziristan,” says Yousafzai. “But they did in the cities.”

Other observers have pointed out that, if Pakistan were really serious about eliminating Taliban operations from its territory, it would first of all have paid attention to Quetta, the capital of Baluchistan where according to the US military the Taliban has held several gatherings.

The military actions in Waziristan, meanwhile, have resulted in an increasingly alienated local population. Thousands of tribesmen have been forced to evacuate their homes because of the operations. Local people have also been killed in airstrikes; indeed, an investigative commission of the Peshawar High Court Bar concluded in September that the majority of casualties in Waziristan have been locals. Also, in a bid to win the war, Pakistan started in May to arrest relatives of persons who committed a crime. At least seven women and 54 children under the age of 18 from NWFP have in this way been detained. However, as a result of this, “tribal people are becoming alienated from the government,” the November 22 issue of Newsweek quoted former chairman of the human rights commission of Pakistan Afrasiab Khattak as saying.

And these days, alienated tribesmen have someone to go to: Abdullah Mehsud. A native from Waziristan, Mehsud fought with the Taliban in Afghanistan, where he lost a leg. After being captured in November 2001 in Kunduz, he was imprisoned in Guantanamo Bay – but subsequently released as a person of little importance. But after his return to Pakistan he became involved in the anti-government struggle in Waziristan and he gained notoriety with the kidnapping, this October, of two Chinese engineers working in Waziristan. One of the Chinese (plus the five kidnappers) was killed in an army rescue attempt and since, Mehsud is one of the most wanted – and well-known – men in Pakistan. On November 8, a military operation aimed at capturing Mehsud started – so far without success.

On November 26, however, the Pakistani military said it would end its operation in South Waziristan, because Osama bin Laden is not hiding in the area. But perhaps it\'s too late now for the authorities to stop the fighting.

Mehsud has reportedly recruited hundreds of tribal youths in his force, and on November 18 he contacted several Pakistani media outlets to inform them he was preparing to launch guerrilla actions. So it seems that the troubles in Waziristan aren\'t over yet, although the army wants to end its actions in the area. Pakistan employed some 70.000 (para) military forces in the NWFP – to counter a force that would have been a few hundred strong only. But now, according to some, the army must fight the local tribes.

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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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