Iran is not a closed book for leaders of Kazakhstan. Economic and political links date long back, and this tradition of good relations is preserved to this day. In his first talks with the Iranian Foreign Minister Velayati in October 1996, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev characterized bilateral relations as “friendly’. However, this common diplomatic phraseology seems to be slightly overstated in the present context. The standoff between the United States and Iran, the clash of Russian and Iranian geopolitical interests in Central Asia and the gathering cloud around Caspian oil forces Kazakh diplomats to keep a reasonable distance in their dialogue with Teheran, which has become more unpredictable after the defeat of Taliban forces in Afghanistan and the Iraq war.

The Iranian trade minister Mohammad Shariatmadari who had intensive talks with Kazakh leaders on October 3-5 had every reason to be satisfied with his visit. The most visible outcome of his trip to Astana was Kazakhstan’s promise to ship 1 million tons of grain to Iran on a swap basis. This volume of grain is far less than Iran have hoped for. But Kazakhstan, which exports only slightly more than 4 million tons of wheat annually and barely covers its domestic consumption needs, cannot provide more. Iran’s steel imports from Kazakhstan are also rather modest. In 2002, Iranian trade officials expressed their readiness to import up to 3 million tons of grain and 2 million tons of steel from Kazakhstan. It now appears that Kazakhstan’s ailing agriculture and steel industry spinning out of government control will not be able to meet that target in coming years.

On the other hand, after the construction of the Aktau seaport on the Caspian sea, Kazakh crude oil shipments to northern Iranian refineries increased remarkably. Last year, daily oil supplies to Iran reached 50,000 barrels. The shortest route from Aktau seaport allows Kazakhstan to ship up to 2 million tons of crude by the end of this year. Since the processing costs of the oil from West Kazakhstan are high due to considerable sulfur content, the economic efficiency of oil imports for Iran is questionable. In their turn, Kazakh trade officials are not quite happy with imports from Iran which mainly consists of products of textile industry, cooking oil, and fruits. Investment possibilities of Iranian companies are limited mainly to road construction and the agricultural sector. Chinese, western European and American companies have already carved out most lucrative niches in the oil and energy sector of Kazakhstan. However, trade relations between Kazakhstan and Iran have showed some positive signs in recent years. While in 2002 the trade volume between the two countries made up $500 million, in the first half of 2004 this figure had already reached $367.1 million.

Iran’s ambitions are not limited to expanding its trade and economic relations with Central Asian countries. Worried by the growing political and military influence of the United States in Uzbekistan and Afghanistan and the looming threat to its borders, Iran seeks closer political ties with Central Asian states. Some time ago Iranian leaders categorized Kazakhstan as its nearest partner in Central Asia. The statement sounds true, partly. On his visit to Astana the Secretary of Iran’s National Security Council Hasan Raukhani raised issues of fighting extremism, terrorism and drug trafficking as immediate threats to the stability in the region. His views were supported by Nursultan Nazarbayev. The sides also touched on Iraq and Afghanistan, somewhat ambiguously stating that Iran and Kazakhstan “pay respect to international treaties”. Hasan Raukhani made a transparent allusion to a growing American military threat and said that the states around the Caspian Sea should not let foreign armed forces penetrate the region.

Iran seeks to win over as many supporters as it can in Central Asia, not restricting its diplomatic maneuvers to bilateral relations. Part of these efforts is the planned summit of the Caspian basin states in Teheran. Although this idea, fumed by Hasan Raukhani, got verbal support from Kazakh officials political analysts warn of the pitfalls of getting too close to Iran. Murat Laumulin, an expert with the Institute for Strategic Studies of Kazakhstan, believes that the escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran and the involvement in the confrontation of the states where American military bases are deployed may destabilize the whole region. A clash of that scale will inevitably have far-reaching repercussions on Kazakhstan and affect its interests in the Caspian region.