The government\'s handling of the arrest certainly indicates a strong desire for a very public arrest rather than a discreet detention. In the week leading up to his arrest, speculation was already mounting that events in Dushanbe were going to take an unexpected turn. Immediately prior to the arrest, General Mirzoev had been denied both permission to take annual leave or to leave the country on work-related matters. At the same time, criminal charges regarding financial irregularities in his personal business activities were filed prior to the arrest. It is understood that further charges have now been lodged, and these are said to include illegal weapons possessions, abuse of power, tax evasion and murder. In addition to Mirzoev, eight of his bodyguards and two of his brothers were also arrested.

A number of analysts have linked the arrest to the 2005 parliamentary elections and the desire by President Imomali Rahmonov to ensure that potential political rivals do not pose a threat. Certainly, Mirzoev was considered a supporter of potential rivals and was being ‘watched closely’. There was also government suspicions that he might have a strong enough personal following that would allow him to mount a coup. It was for these reasons that earlier this year, he was removed from his position as head of the presidential guard and placed in charge of the Tajik Drug Control Agency. The move resulted in a significant amount of unease, and surprise, among international drug control bodies. Much of this unease was not concerned with Mirzoev’s power-base, but rather the extent of his personal wealth, and whether some of this had been gained through involvement in drug trafficking. Certainly it is true that General Mirzoev is a wealthy man, he owns a number of successful businesses, his wife and children live in Dubai, and he spends his time living between luxury apartments in Dushanbe. But allegations of drug trafficking have not been proven, and General Mirzoev himself has indicated that he is wealthy enough and has no need to engage in the thriving drug trade. A number of drug control experts have also supported this view. Indeed, representatives of the UNODC have been quick to point out that they see the events as being entirely related to Tajikistan’s domestic politics. Many experts now hope that the DCA’s former and now reinstated director, Rustam Nazarov, will continue the positive work he was doing before Mirzoyev’s appointment. How Mirzoyev’s supporters, particularly those loyal to him in the 3000 strong presidential guard, will respond to these events will be critical. Since the arrest there have been heavily armed police on the streets of Dushanbe. For Tajikistan such events have the capability of undermining what can only be described as ‘a fragile peace’.