A situation previously described as “tense” escalated after a Georgian resident was slightly wounded while Ossetian forces were conducting an exercise on military training grounds in Prisi village. In response, Irakli Okruashvili, Georgian Interior Minister, issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Ossetian authorities demanding that the responsible individual be arrested. Otherwise, Georgian authorities would deal with the situation. Although the deadline passed, ignored by both sides, events escalated. The Georgian Financial Police, assisted by local authorities, impounded Ossetian-owned vehicles and goods and detained drivers in the fight against contraband originating from Tskhinvali. Further, authorities sentenced three North Ossetians to three-month pre-trial detention for illegally entering Georgian territory.

Ossetians began to respond strongly from 27 June. Armed Ossetians blocked village roads for several hours. Roki Tunnel, connecting Russia and Georgia, as well as North and South Ossetia, is now closed. Ossetian forces increased military training exercises in Prisi village, in what locals describe as an intimidating show of force. In Georgian fields surrounding Tskhinvali, authorities following contraband roads and villagers tending fields report having been shot at by Ossetians forces. In what has become a daily event, Georgian security forces, media representatives, and private individuals are being detained or arrested (over 14 in the last week).” Meanwhile, Ossetians reportedly continue to dig trenches around their capital and allow unauthorized, armed persons to “defend” Ossetian villages. One Shida Kartli official explained, “Villagers called us about Ossetians digging trenches. The governor asked us to check the information. We found approximately 25 heavily-armed soldiers in trenches around Ditsi village.”

Georgian authorities view the recent events as a “provocation” and an attempt to incite yet another civil conflict. One Shida Kartli authority highly respected for his relations with the Ossetian population explained, “the Ossetians are doing their best to provoke a situation. They want to start another conflict. They want to give the Russians a reason to enter South Ossetia and take control over the territory…. We have enough political resources on the Georgian side for a political dialogue with the Ossetians. But if Georgians get provoked and start another war, it will be devastating for Georgia. This is the Ossetians’ aim”.

The Ossetian Interior Ministry has issued a statement announcing that all roads to Tskhinvali would be closed as long as the Georgian authorities continued to confiscate Ossetian goods and vehicles. Nonetheless, Georgian authorities are continuing their determined activities to curb smuggling. The Shida Kartli governor, local authorities, and security officials man contraband checkpoints and roads all day and particularly at night, when trafficking is at its highest (smugglers attempt to sneak into Georgian territory unnoticed in the dark, using “smuggling fields” rather than paved roads). One local official noted, “We are working entirely on this issue now and we haven’t slept in four days.”

Georgian officials face a number of obstacles. One official noted, “We dig trenches into smuggling roads, but they are flattened at night. We don’t have enough men to watch every road.” After reports that authorities were shot at following smuggling fields, some are afraid to follow dark roads at night. Moreover, many local villagers have relied on smuggling as a source of income and cheap products for years. One local policeman exclaimed: “How can I stop somebody from my village when people have nothing to eat! What right do I have to stop them and insult them for buying contraband?”

The current situation has caused numerous complications for both Georgians and Ossetians and heightened tensions. Traffic that normally entered Russia through Roki Tunnel is now diverted to Larsi Tunnel in distant Mtskheta-Mtianeti region. Villagers desperate to sell their produce on the Tskhinvali market are forced to risk entering and leaving Tskhinvali through fields surrounding the city. Others, too afraid to take the risk, are worried about how they will survive as long as the situation persists. Meanwhile, Tskhinvali residents have reportedly “gone North” to Java district and North Ossetia “for summer vacation”. Some Georgians view this situation as an evacuation of the city and a preparation for war, believing only the elderly, poor, and security forces are left in Tskhinvali.

Georgian villagers now live in fear of war and turn to local authorities for guidance. They stress that Ossetians are heavily armed, while they have no weapons. In the context of reports that the Ossetian leadership distributed arms to Ossetians in Tskhinvali region, one local stated, “They are getting ready for war, but we are not. We want peace. Ossetians have lived with us for years…. We pray every day for Saakashvili and for peace.” At the same time, if Georgians are called upon by their government to fight, they are ready to defend Georgian territory.

To prevent the Georgian side from starting a conflict, local authorities are consistently urging the Georgian population to show restraint. One official noted, “They have advised us ‘not to lay a finger on the Ossetians’”. Meanwhile, Georgia continues extending a hand to the Ossetian population residing in the conflict zone through humanitarian initiatives and cultural events, albeit at an abated pace.

Observers of the situation continually point out that political negotiations between Russia, Georgia, and the United States provide the main source of hope for resolving the Ossetian-Georgian conflict peacefully. Business prospects for the Russian community might entice Russia to allow Georgia to regain control over South Ossetia. One major incentive is the development of the road from Roki Tunnel into the center of Georgia, which would increase trade between Russia, the South Caucasus states, and Turkey.

Georgians stress that their determined anti-contraband and humanitarian activities are having the desired effect on the Ossetian authorities, stressing that Ossetians would not respond so harshly if they were not losing power. However, if either the Georgian or Ossetian side is not able to control its residents from responding violently to the currently tense situation, the potential that a small-scale conflict may erupt is exists. Should this occur, it is unclear to what extent the situation could impact Georgia and the Caucasus region generally. Everyone’s attention is now turned towards the forthcoming Joint Control Commission and Putin-Saakashvili meetings for answers.