In May 2004, another part of the opposition and part of the centrists under leadership of the former Security Secretary Missir Ashirkulov created the Civic Union for Fair Elections. The Union stated as a primary goal to provide fair parliamentary and presidential elections. Prominent members of the Union include the Arnamys party led by political prisoner Feliks Kulov, parliamentary deputies Madumarov and Tekebaev, as well as businessman Almaz Atambaev.

President Akaev for a long time has expressed his decision not to run for the next presidential term. But following the integration of opposition forces, Akaev is signaling his disagreement with the attempts of some countries “to export democracy” through “velvet revolutions” as in Georgia.

Two probable scenarios prepared by the President to provide security for his clan’s assets and save his influence in the country’s policy have been considered. A first scenario could be to promote the pro-governmental party Alga Kyrgyzstan to obtain a majority in the next parliament, to be elected in February 2005; then to conduct a referendum for the creation of a parliamentary system and following that to appoint Akaev parliamentary speaker. On May 30, the Constitutional Court declined the appeal of some parties for the creation of a parliamentary republic. Opposition deputies such as Tekebaev argued that the progovernmental parties feared that the opposition union would receive a majority in the new parliament as an explanation for that decision.

A second scenario is to promote a new person for the position of prime minister and gain popularity through conducting real reforms and achieving economic results. However, there is still no candidate that could replace Prime Minister Nikolay Tanaev. Moreover, this scenario is made less plausible by the fact that according to the comparative economic indicators, Kyrgyzstan has the lowest level of economic progress within the CIS.

Now to regain popularity and public trust, the leadership began to carry out real reforms, aimed at improving social life. An active struggle against corruption in the mid- and low authority echelons was launched, while specific and measurable goals in the attraction of foreign investments and poverty reduction in the country have been set out for each region, while the judicial and law enforcement system has been subjected to rigid criticism by the president for inefficiency.

Meanwhile, there are signals that regional powers have firmly decided to promote the succession of power in Kyrgyzstan. Missir Ashirkulov, the former secretary of Security Council and a close friend of the President, frequently visits Moscow for medical purposes and unofficially meets with representatives of the Kremlin. After launching the For Fair Elections Union, he left to Moscow. In the fall of 2002, an attempt on Ashirkulov’s life was made, and court proceedings in the case were postponed without valid reason.

Since the establishment Antiterrorist Coalition forces in Kyrgyzstan, Russia has voiced its frustration with the presidential administration. Russia deployed its forces 50 km away from the Ganci air base, but did not stop at that; Russia is increasingly often expressing its discontent by what Moscow hardliners term a U.S. approach to encircle Russia. Some forces in Moscow are therefore interested in a transfer of power to a leadership with a more loyal attitude to Moscow.

According to recent reports, the U.S. has repeatedly informed that it is not satisfied with the speed of democratic reforms implemented by the leaders of Central Asian countries. On May 24, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State on European Affairs Lynn Pascoe visited Kyrgyzstan. He signaled that Kyrgyzstan is considered by the U.S. government as a model in promoting political and economic reforms in Central Asia.

However both the Kyrgyz opposition and president Akaev want a succession of power to take place without external intervention. Both parties reject the possibility of a Georgian or Azerbaijani scenario.

Kyrgyzstan is in line to become the scene of a new post-Soviet succession of power, but it is still unclear in what way. The elections that are to be conducted in the next two years for the parliament and the presidency are set to become key events in Central Asia. While the U.S. and Russia will inevitably be seen to play a role during the election process, considering their interests in the region, their roles are likely to be defined mostly by the actions taken by the Kyrgyz opposition and government in the nearest future.