In a general context, the transformation of a public association into a political party is not an unexpected development. That is the route almost routinely followed by many political forces striving to ascend the power. But the sudden twist in the development of “Asar” gives rich food for speculation for at least two reasons. First, Dariga Nazarbayeva, an ardent patron of the national television channel “Khabar” and the “Caspionet” media group, has never disclosed publicly her genuine interest in politics. A holder of a doctorate in political science from Moscow State University, she is more known as a passionate lover of opera than a politician. Secondly, the unanimous election of Dariga Nazarbayeva as chairwoman of the newly-born “Asar” party at its founding congress on October 25 almost coincided with the presidential elections in Azerbaijan, which led to transfer of power to the son of the president.

That may, of course, be a pure coincidence. Talking to journalists after the party congress, Dariga Nazarbayeva brushed aside the suspicion that she has the intention to succeed her father as the president after he leaves his post. “I think there is nobody to replace the currently functioning president. Political opponents would be well advised not to squander their financial resources in election campaigns. They will lose” she said, and added: “I have to thank the opposition. They did much for my gaining such a prominence. The more they criticize my family and me, the more I grew hardened”. She said the society needs the opposition, ‘those guardians of healthy spirit’”.

Whether Dariga Nazarbayeva’s affection for the opposition is sincere or not, she appears to be the incarnation of an authoritarian ruler. “Street demonstrations and pickets do not solve the problem. Our people do not possess a political culture, she told journalists a short while ago. Strictly speaking, there is hardly a political force in Kazakhstan to prevent her from grabbing the presidential power to succeed her father if she wishes to do so. Many analysts agree that Kazakhstan may follow the Azeri pattern of monarchy legalized by formal elections. In the current situation, opposition forces, emaciated by internal strife and inter-party rivalry, and harassed by pro-presidential parties, cannot offer an effective resistance to authoritarian demarches.

“Asar” causes problems not only for the opposition. The pro-government “Otan”, Civic Party, Agrarian Party also have grounds to be alarmed for their political prospects. “Asar” makes no bones about its intentions to participate in next year’s elections to lower house of parliament (majilis). That makes a close alliance between these two parties, otherwise pursuing common political goals, inconceivable. But it is hard to predict the development of relationships in coming months.

The political platform of “Asar” party, in essence, does not differ greatly from the stated program of the president “Kazakhstan – 2030”. As an important precondition for modernizing the country, the party stresses the need to strengthen the presidential power, guarantee democratic liberties, the development of civic institutions, effective public control of the activities of state bodies, fighting corruption, and shifting the economy from export of natural resources to industrial production. None of these statements are new, however. They have been reiterated by nearly all parties before.

The real power of “Asar” party lies in the personality of Dariga Nazarbayeva, who, hardly a charismatic leader, is nevertheless an enigma to the majority of population. Full of contradictions, she speaks Kazakh poorly, while appealing at the same time to the patriotic feelings of her nation. She uses her position of a daughter of the president to her best advantage in mobilizing local government offices to work for “Asar”. Surrounded by security guards, loudly cheered by crowds of handpicked admirers during her tours of the regions, she leaves an impression of an old-style party functionary.

Not long after the founding congress, local branches of the “Asar” party were set up in practically all regions of the country within a few days. Reportedly, in Kyzylorda region in South Kazakhstan, 13,000 people applied for party membership. People do wonder how a party that is not yet registered could gain such an enormous popularity in such short time. Only few doubt that the 50,000-membership threshold needed to register a party will be passed by “Asar” without much effort.