Wednesday, 08 October 2003

AZERBAIJANI ELECTIONS APPROACH AS TENSIONS ESCALATE

Published in Field Reports

By Gulnara Ismailova (10/8/2003 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Minister of Foreign Affairs Vilayat Guliyev was the first among official representatives who at the beginning of October mentioned such a development of the situation in Brussels at a session of the Council of cooperation between the European Union and Azerbaijan. But Guliyev only informed that within the next few days the ruling party would put forward a unified candidate in the elections, but left without mentioning which of the candidates it would be.

This announcement made it clear that the forthcoming presidential elections will result in a change of authority, at least as far as the personality is concerned.

Minister of Foreign Affairs Vilayat Guliyev was the first among official representatives who at the beginning of October mentioned such a development of the situation in Brussels at a session of the Council of cooperation between the European Union and Azerbaijan. But Guliyev only informed that within the next few days the ruling party would put forward a unified candidate in the elections, but left without mentioning which of the candidates it would be.

This announcement made it clear that the forthcoming presidential elections will result in a change of authority, at least as far as the personality is concerned. Commenting on the president’s decision, deputy executive secretary of YAP Mubariz Gurbanli declared that it was a personal decision by the President. He assessed that Heydar Aliyev’s decision was accepted with understanding in the party, and YAP responded to the appeal from the chairman, and will support Ilham Aliyev’s candidature in every way.

Ilham Aliyev, addressing voters, expressed regret concerning the decision of his father to withdraw. The withdrawal was \"long expected\", according to Etibar Mamedov, leader of the National Independence Party. He emphasized that Aliyev senior’s leaving the political arena and the creation of a new political situation was officially arranged. Mamedov also doubted that Aliyev personally made the decision, saying that no one knows who authored the removal of Aliyev’s nomination.

The leader of the Musavat party Isa Gambar also expressed doubts that Heydar Aliyev was able to write the announcement. However, he concluded that “this means the end of Heydar Aliev’s era and simultaneously will bring increased opportunities for democratic development in Azerbaijan.

If in the beginning of the election campaign many people have been concerned about the large number of candidates to the presidency, the number is now rapidly decreasing. In the last few weeks, several candidates withdrew their candidacies in favor of Ilham Aliyev, including Milli Vahdat party chairman Yunus Oguz, chairman of “The alliance in the name of Azerbaijan” and Abutalib Samedov have withdrawn the nominees. Gudrat Hasanguliev and Hafiz Hajiyev among pro-YAP candidates are still in the race. Most likely, they will also withdraw in favor of Ilham Aliev. In any case, there would be little harm if they stayed as candidates, as neither is likely to poll over one percent.

From the opposition camp, the chairman of the Popular Front Party Ali Kerimli withdraw his candidature in favor of AMIP leader Etibar Mamedov.

Meanwhile, as election day approaches, political conditions in the country are more and more heated. The long-term Mission of the OSCE supervising the presidential elections in Azerbaijan has prepared a communiqué on the pre-election situation in Azerbaijan for the Office of Democratic Institutions and Human Rights. There is an increase of intensity and sharp polarization among political forces, the communiqué says. It mentioned unrest during election meetings both in Baku and the regions, interventions of police during meetings between candidates and voters, and the use of dirty PR-techniques.

Frequently, fears are expressed that such developments could lead to the destabilization of the situation in Azerbaijan. The head of the Presidential Administration Ramiz Mehtiev declared that the government has information that the opposition is going to destabilize the country on October 15 and 16.

According to the head of the public forum “In the Name of Azerbaijan” Eldar Namazov, non-democratic elections in Azerbaijan can lead to civil unrest. “Hostile relations before elections between authorities and opposition, and the infringement of human rights and democratic freedoms during these elections could lead to instability. Unfortunately, this threat has increased in the last few months”.

Meanwhile, the last preparations for the elections are going on. An independent press center is already created in Baku with the purpose to facilitate the transfer of information on the presidential elections to journalists. According to the chairman of the Central Election Commission (CEC) Mazahir Panahov, more than 2 million bulletins for voting have already been printed and sent to the district and local electoral commissions. All local electoral commissions are already provided with transparent ballot boxes.

The CEC has registered 667 international observers for the elections. Among these, 443 are representatives of the OSCE. Though the official accreditation process has ended, the number of registered international observers within the next few days could still increase.

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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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