The situation in this region deteriorated once before, in the summer of 2001. Then from June to September 2001, members of an illegal armed grouping led by Haji Magomedov conducted armed strikes on police posts and patrol stations in Zaqatala and Balakan. During this period, the gangs killed 4 policemen and 2 civilian inhabitants, and also injured 10 law enforcement officers. In the summer of 2002, a series of armed attacks on divisions of the interior ministry forces and police departments in the same regions also occurred. As a result of these attacks, one officer was killed and 6 policemen were injured. As a result of operations carried out last year, law enforcement bodies detained and initiated criminal proceedings against 23 criminals. Murder and robbery were only a part of the crimes they were accused. According to the induction, the basic purpose of the terrorists was the creation of a separatist Dzhar-Balaken republic on the territory of Azerbaijan. Acts of vandalism, such as the blowing up of the bust of sheikh Shamil in the regional center Zaqatala (400 km northwest of Baku) seemed to be intended to arouse interethnic tensions in this region with large Dagestani, especially Avar population. Moreover, the murders of both civilians and representatives of law enforcement bodies seemed to contain a political purpose. About 30 members of the group have been arrested to date, three of which were sentenced to life in prison. Yet despite these measures, many criminals are still free. The head of the illegal armed group, Haji Magomedov, was killed last year during an exchange of fire with border guards. The most recent series of events began on the night of August 14, 2003, when a group of armed people took seven people hostage in a mountainous part of the Balakan area (450 km northwest of Baku). Later six hostages, all inhabitants of the Zaqatala area, were released, while kidnappers demanded a ransom of $20,000 for the last hostage, an inhabitant of the Gabal village of the Lagodekhi area of Georgia. However, law enforcement bodies freed the last hostage. No data was given on the identity of the perpetrators. However, this immediately raised fears that this was carried out by members of the armed group that killed several people in 2001-2002. Only days later, an armed attack on police in the Balakan area wounded two officers. At approximately 1:00 am, someone threw stones at a police car, forcing the officers to stop the car. As the officers left their car, several unknown persons fired at them with handguns. Then on September 18 at 4:00 am, two armed criminals carried out a strike on a gasoline station located on the Zaqatala-Balakan highway. Criminals stole eight million Azerbaijani Manats (ca. US$ 4,000) and wounded police officer Kerim Lachinov, who tried to put up resistance. Lachinov was hit by three bullets, and attackers disappeared, with the entire operation taking ca. 10 minutes. Lachinov was placed in the reanimation branch of the central hospital of Zagatala. Commenting on the attack, the head of the police department of Zaqatala Rafik Abbasov noted that robbers were armed with Ak-47 submachine guns and a silenced pistol. The public prosecutor of this area has initiated a criminal case. Additional forces from the interior ministry forces were dispatched to the region, working with the police and border troops to apprehend the criminals. According to Abbasov, the perpetrators have not been identified. They have not excluded that they belonged to Haji Magomedov’s group. The Head of the State boundary service of Azerbaijan Elchin Guliyev informed, that the search for criminals was complicated by the mountainous and forested landscape of the area. According to experts, analyzing a series of the armed strikes, it is possible to tell with confidence that the attacks occur with some regularity. Several months ago, members of the same gang made a similar strike. The style of the previous attacks was very similar to the last armed raid, suggesting that the same gang is active. This has increased worries that the government failed to take out a criminal grouping in the northwestern part of the country, implying that the frontiers of Azerbaijan are not as well guarded as was thought. But the nature of the events remains disputed. A first explanation is that it is an incessant criminal dispute between various groupings. The analysis of the events shows that the purpose of the criminals is the transformation of Balakan and Zaqatala areas to an uncontrolled territory for use in criminal purposes, as was the case in Georgia’s Pankisi gorge. In particular, terrorists pursued the purpose of using Zaqatala for the abduction of wealthy people from Azerbaijan, Russia and Georgia for ransom. In addition, it is argued that this district was planned to be used for the cultivation, manufacture and transit of drugs. A second version that is frequently returning is “the Russian trace”. It is alleged that the events are in reality provocations by the Russian special services, seeking to worsen the internal political situation in Azerbaijan. For this purpose, the national minorities compactly living in region and having close connections with Russia, and in particular with Dagestan are used. It is known that already in 2001 Haji Magomedov planned to stir the population to action for the creation of a separate Avar homeland. There is also a connection between Armenia and separatism in the northwest of Azerbaijan. According to court materials, it is known that if Armenian forces promised to allocate US$300,000 and more than a thousand firearms to Avars that staged operations in Azerbaijan. In any case, the processes occurring in the north-west of Azerbaijan seem to be of a systematic character, leading some analysts to fear that the situation in this region can go out of control.