Wednesday, 02 July 2003

AZERBAIJAN: ONE PARTY, TWO CANDIDATES

Published in Field Reports

By Narmina Mamedova (7/2/2003 issue of the CACI Analyst)

At the nomination meeting, the vice-presidents of Nakhichevan state university, the minister of youth, sports and tourism of Nakhichevan and the head of the women\'s organization \"Sevil\" (which has close ties to Ilham\'s sister) spoke about the personal and professional achievements of Ilham Aliyev. Turan information agency reported that the chairman of the local supreme council Vasif Talybov was also present at the meeting, which, if true, gives more credibility to the event.

This nomination creates a puzzle in the pre-election situation.

At the nomination meeting, the vice-presidents of Nakhichevan state university, the minister of youth, sports and tourism of Nakhichevan and the head of the women\'s organization \"Sevil\" (which has close ties to Ilham\'s sister) spoke about the personal and professional achievements of Ilham Aliyev. Turan information agency reported that the chairman of the local supreme council Vasif Talybov was also present at the meeting, which, if true, gives more credibility to the event.

This nomination creates a puzzle in the pre-election situation. Ilham Aliyev is not only the son of the current President, but also the deputy chairman of the ruling New Azerbaijan Party (YAP). The ruling party on June 23 held its party congress and nominated President Aliyev for re-election. The Central Election Commission has already approved the candidacy of President Aliyev and issued YAP the signature collection sheets. At this point, the possible nomination of Ilham Aliyev would put son against the father.

The chairman of the Central Election Commission Mazahir Panahov stated that no documents had been submitted to the CEC yet, but the head of CEC\'s legal department Ilgar Alizadeh did not see any violation of the law in this situation. Ilham Aliyev, himself, has not commented on this developments of events, but knowing the centralized decision making in the country, it is not hard to guess that the authorities were well aware of the Nakhichevan meeting in advance.

Speaking about this nomination, the deputy executive secretary of YAP Bahar Muradova said that \"Ilham Aliyev is not only the deputy chairman of the party, but also a famous public figure. The initiative group nominated him, so there is no violation of the law and one cannot say that there is a competition within the party. This nomination merely shows the growing popularity of Ilham Aliyev\".

Meanwhile, the opposition parties pretended to ignore the situation. \"This does not concern Etibar Mamedov\", said the head of Azerbaijan National Independence Party\'s election headquarters Fuad Agayev, referring to the party chairman. \"It is a personal issue of Ilham and Heydar Aliyev\", commented another opposition member, Gulamhusseyn Alibeyli of the Popular Front.

The opposition press bashed the initiative by claiming that the ruling party is confused and does not know what to do with the deadlocked situation in which the party found itself after the collapse of President Aliyev in April and his subsequent health problems. \"They face the same problem that they have been accusing us for many years\", exclaimed the opposition daily Yeni Musavat, referring to the absence of unity within the party on who should run. By and large, the opposition seems to be indifferent to the issue, apparently believing they will win the elections no matter who runs from the ruling party.

Whether the nomination of Ilham Aliyev is a serious political act or just a decision of local governmental officials will become clear sooner or later. Yet it is already obvious that the ruling party does indeed have doubts on who should run for the presidency, and considering the health problems of President Aliyev, the ruling elite might want to secure a second candidate for itself.

Ilham Aliyev has been groomed for Presidency for the past 10 years. He is the head of Azerbaijan\'s Olympic Committee and Parliamentary delegation to the Council of Europe and serves as the first vice-president of the State Oil Company. He has wide international links and financial support. At the same time, he lacks support among the public and the ruling elite. This implies a risk of deep fragmentation should Aliyev senior die in office or become incapacitated.

In the final analysis, it is impossible to imagine that son and father would run against each other. If Ilham Aliyev officially becomes the candidate, one can expect that Aliyev senior will pull out of the race at some point, and vice versa.

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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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