Turkmenistan, being one of the world’s most energy-rich countries, with an estimated fourth place in world natural gas reserves. According to estimates, Turkmenistan’s gas reserves are over 22 trillion cubic meters. The agreement signed between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkmenistan’s leader Saparmurad Niyazov states that Russia will purchase about 2 trillion cubic meters of Turkmen gas within twenty-five years at the price of $44 per thousand cubic meters. According to President Niyazov, this bilateral agreement will bring $200 billion of income to Turkmenistan whereas Russia will gain $300 billion. However, Mr. Niyazov agreed that Russia would pay half of the fee for gas in cash and the rest would be compensated with Russian goods. Turkmen authorities believe that this new gas project is still profitable for Turkmenistan since Russia is both a big market and a transit for Turkmen gas to European markets. Although gas projects are developing with neighboring countries, the climate for operations of international corporations within the country appears to be less than attractive. For example, Dutch Shell Oil Company is intending to close down its office in Ashgabat, whereas Exxon Mobil shut down its operations in 2001.

In addition, presidents Putin and Niyazov agreed to cancel a 1993 dual citizenship agreement between the two countries. As Turmenistan.ru reports, the Protocol about terminating dual citizenship has already been published in the press of Turkmenistan. During the meeting in the Kremlin, this decision was taken as a part of measures of fighting against those who would commit crimes within Turkmenistan by having a dual citizenship. Turkmen authorities believe that this bilateral agreement will prevent acts of terrorism in Turkmenistan. However, annulling this treaty of dual citizenship is creating an uneasy situation among the ethnic Russians in Turkmenistan. Now these Russians need to get a visa and an official permission from Turkmen authorities to visit their relatives in Russia. Russian journalist Arkady Dubnov claims that “many people are flocking to Russia’s embassy in Ashgabat for advice on which country they should choose to belong to”. Moreover, as journalist Dmitri Glumskov asserts, portraits of Vladimir Putin were burned down on the streets of Ashgabat at night right after the cancellation of the dual citizenship treaty. Meanwhile, last week the United Nations Committee for Human Rights passed a resolution on Turkmenistan accusing it “of arbitrary detentions and arrests, and harassment and forced displacement of family members of those accused of the assassination attempt last November”, states a Turkmenistan Project report. Turkmen authorities are also asking Russia to extradite opposition members or ‘suspected militants’. In this light, the warming of ties between Niyazov and Putin and the cancellation of the dual citizenship treaty can be seen as a real setback for the Turkmen opposition in Moscow, including the former head of the Central Bank of Turkmenistan, Khudayberdy Orazov, and former Turkmenistani ambassador to Turkey, Nurmukhamed Khanamov.

All in all, the bilateral gas deal is scheduled to bring benefits both to Turkmenistan and to Russia. However, dissolving the treaty of dual citizenship and signing a security agreement appears to have negative implications for ethnic minorities within Turkmenistan, and for the exiled Turkmen opposition.