The first summit of the five Caspian sea countries on April 24 in Ashgabat finished in failure, when the leaders of Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Russia failed to sign a joint declaration. The very day after the summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to hold large-scale exercises in the Caspian Sea. The timing of the decision was probably not a coincidence. The decisions was made on April 25 during a visit to Astrakhan, Russia’s main naval base in the Caspian.

Mr. Putin charged Navy Commander-in-Chief Vladimir Kuroedov with planning and holding naval exercises of the Caspian Fleet this coming summer, engaging all forces – the frontier troops, Air Force and anti-aircraft defenses, subdivisions of North Caucasus military district.

Russian military leaders have officially announced that the main aim of these exercises is the struggle against terrorism. Military operations In nearby Afghanistan are not over; besides, drugs trade is a problem throughout the region, and according to President Putin, ‘drug trafficking by water is one of the problems, Russia is facing today’ It is noteworthy that the Russian President proposed to invite representatives of all Caspian sea countries to participate in these exercises.

But the news about these exercises led to increased tension in the region. Azerbaijan was the first country to respond to the announcement. President Heydar Aliyev stated that ‘there is nothing unordinary in holding navy exercises’. According to Aliyev, Putin informed him at the Ashgabat meeting about plans to hold exercises in the Caspian Sea and invited Azerbaijan to take part in it, and this invitation was accepted.

That does not mean that Azerbaijan supports the militarization of the Caspian: the President earlier stated that Azerbaijan sticks to the principle of the ‘entire demilitarization of the Caspian sea and using its water only for peaceful aims’. Iran also spoke categorically against military exercises. Iranian President Mohammed Khatami warned of the possibility of a new crisis in the region. On April 29, Khatami, speaking in Bishkek, noted that Iran thinks ‘it is necessary to reject an arms race, and instead announce the region as a demilitarized zone’.

In an interview to Iranian television, Prof. Usef Mulaee of Teheran University asked ‘How necessary are Russian military exercises in the Caspian Sea? It is unclear which non-regional states create a threat to the security of Caspian countries, in particular to Russia, and against what threat the exercises are directed’. Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have yet to take a stand on the issue. Moscow’s ambassadors to Baku and Teheran, Nikolay Ryabov and Alexandr Maryasov, hurried to refute fears regarding the forthcoming military exercises.

In an interview, Ryabov argued the inadmissibility of solving issues in the Caspian Sea ‘under pressure, by using force, or the threat of use of force, establishing any coalitions or joining them hoping to get unilateral military advantage.’ Maryasov, for his part, stated that he considers the fears that the exercises are a threat to stability in the Caspian: “Russia categorically opposes the presence of outside military forces in the Caspian Sea, considering it an element of destabilization in the sea”.

In the opinion of independent experts, several reasons to hold such maneuvers exist. The first is connected with the fact that Russia, due to its problems in Chechnya as well as in the North Caucasus as a whole, wants to strengthen its military position in the region. Second, taking into account U.S.-Azerbaijani military cooperation, these maneuvers may be a way for Russia to demonstrate its ability to balance a U.S. presence there. Russia apparently wants to show that it is still the leading power in the Caspian Sea, and thereby warn non-Caspian countries, especially the U.S., from involvement in the region.

The militarization of the Caspian sea is likely to increase regional tensions. Negotiations aimed at the peaceful resolution of the Caspian sea issue by diplomatic means, moreover, are unlikely to succeed if an arms race causing suspicion and distrust among regional countries emerges. In addition, that would cause significant financial expenses for military needs that the states are not in a position to pay.

In the final analysis, Russia’s decision to hold large-scale exercises in the Caspian Sea proved once again that Moscow does not exclude the us of military force in this region.

Gulnara Ismailova, a freelance journalist based in Baku, Azerbaijan.

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