A soldier along the Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan border is not very positive about the prospects for war in the spring. He believes the border is still a very dangerous area and would even take bets from anyone claiming that it will be peaceful this year. Even normal infantry soldiers who participated in the war last year can see that the local population of Batken is living like beggars. It is fertile ground for the militant Islamic ideology known here as "wahabbism". Nothing has changed since last year. The people still live in misery—a beggar’s existence.

Southern Kyrgyzstan traditionally has a more conservative Islamic orientation compared with the rest of the country. Here in the Batken region, terrorists struck last year creating havoc. Muslim terrorists declared their intention to create a new state that would include the Ferghana, Andijan, and Namangan Oblasts of Uzbekistan and the Osh Oblast of Kyrgyzstan. These regions make up the Ferghana Valley, the most volatile region of Central Asia throughout its history.

In August 1999, people of Kyrgyzstan were shocked by when Muslim terrorists crossed into Kyrgyzstan from war torn Tajikistan and kidnapped four Japanese geologists and their Kyrgyz interpreter, holding them for ransom. Some time later, they kidnapped a Kyrgyz general and several military officials. Kyrgyz forces, both the military and police, were mobilized to deal with the terrorist situation. The forces concentrated in the Batken region where the hostage crisis began. Two months later, as a result of military operations, negotiations and a ransom pay off of anywhere from US $2-6 million dollars, the hostages were set free and the terrorists were allowed to return into Tajikistan unharmed.

The Kyrgyzstan parliament and government have taken measures to give the Batken region the status of oblast in order to give the region more power, political representation, and governmental subsidies. But locals are still faced with questions about how effective these new measures will be to stem the tide of militant Islamic activities in the region. The struggle against so-called "wahabbi" ideology is stronger throughout Kyrgyzstan. But these measures might not be enough to guarantee peace for Central Asia’s " island of democracy" as Kyrgyzstan is known. There are doubts that Kyrgyzstan has enough financial, military, and ideological power to fight against incursions from militants. Many people in the Batken region are expecting assistance from the Russian military along with technical support. In the meantime, many Kyrgyz are voting with their feet. Emigration from Kyrgyzstan jumped significantly because of the economic crisis that has worsened since the Batken hostage crisis.

Gulnara Kasmali, Biskek artist and her husband Muratbek Jumali, Director, Children’s Arts School, Bishkek