The Uzbek Islamic militant leader Juma Namangani is causing great concern in Kyrgyzstan this spring. Two weeks ago some of the news agencies reported that Namangani along with 150-180 fighters had crossed the Tajikistan border and headed to Kunduz, Afghanistan. However, the Kyrgyzstan military forces are seriously preparing for an incursion of some 2,000 militants led by Namangani. Kyrgyz president Askar Akayev and the Kyrgyz Minister of Defense have appeared on television in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and in Russia discussing the threat. Prior to the reports about Namangani's movements, members of Tajikistan’s Security Council including former United Tajik Opposition commanders, spent several days in Tavildara in the Karategin Valley, holding negotiations with Namangani.

The number of the people fighting along with Namangani varies from two to four thousand, a figure that includes the fighters and members of their families. The most recent estimates of Namangani's military force is now at 2,000. Although there is tremendous alarm, the international humanitarian agencies operating in the area do not indicate any significant military concentrations in the area. Some of his supporters are former Tajik UTO fighters. However, they are not likely to leave Tajikistan and rather roam from place to place along the Kyrgyz border. It appears that Kyrgyzstan’s concern about a possible military incursion is also exaggerated. The fighters would probably use the Kyrgyz territory as a transition territory to get to Uzbekistan’s side of the Ferghana Valley. Some 5,000 former UTO fighters settled in the Karategin Valley when the peace accord was signed in summer of 1997 though this does not mean that they are all connected with Namangani.

There has not been any official information on how many of the former UTO fighters were reintegrated into the Tajik army. It can only be conjectured that a certain number of the fighters returned to civic life as farmers or working in animal husbandry in this agricultural area. However, others are receiving Islamic education from their "mullahs", spiritual leaders, who also serve as field commanders and local governors. The Uzbeks, who are mostly migrants from the Ferghana Valley, started settling in the Karategin Valley in the early 1990s, after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the rise of Islamic fundamentalism in Central Asia. Islam Karimov, the Uzbek President was very tough and pushed out all "Islamically" oriented political opponents. However, since time immemorial, the Fergana Valley of Uzbekistan has been considered to be a center for Islamic fundamentalism. The valley is densely populated and very fertile for agriculture.

A second wildcard unsettling the region is the recent emergence of Hisb'e Tahrir; an Islamic militant party that has been banned in Tajikistan. Many people, mostly those in Leninabad Province of Tajikistan that borders on Uzbekistan, have been arrested and charged during the last several months for activities connected to Hisb'e Tahrir. The Uzbek National Security Services are encountering the same types of Hisb'e Tahrir activities in the Ferghana Valley. It has been difficult to establish any relationship between Namangani and the Hisb'e Tahrir. No one can say what is the place of origin of this party, when it emerged, who are its founders or even what basic ideas those affiliated with the party hold. There is tremendous speculation that Namangani renders support to Hisb’e Tahrir but there is no concrete information.

Konstantin Parshin, Radio NIC Tajikistan.