On March 28, The Russian Federal and Ingush enforcement units launched an air and ground attack on an insurgent camp in Ingushetia’s Sunzha district, officially killing 17 people. It was part of a large scale counterinsurgency operation in the region and has been qualified by President Medvedev as a “heavy blow” to the insurgents.

If the first reaction of the commentators was surprise since air attacks is a very unusual way for the Security Forces to fight insurgents in the Caucasus region, the attention quickly shifted to the number of people killed and their identity. Indeed, official statements, reports and commentators have constantly differed on these two points.

Regarding the number of casualties, the first official report mentioned 17 casualties and the arrest of two people suspected of having taken part in the Domodedovo attack in January. Soon thereafter, unofficial reports and statements began to contradict the official Russian stance and spoke of 14, 16, 19 or even 21 casualties.

However, most attention has focused on the fate of Doku Umarov. Soon after the attack, the first official statement claimed that the leader of the Caucasus insurgency, as well as his wife and personal physician, were among the dead. Since then, the situation has remained unclear. Whereas some are still arguing that Umarov is dead, others, such as the Ingush president and some unofficial sources, have remained more skeptical about this information. Even though the presence of Umarov’s wife and personal physician would seem to demonstrate the presence the insurgent leader himself in the insurgent camp, nobody has yet formally identified his body. Moreover, on April 7 a man claiming to be Umarov called Radio Liberty’s North Caucasus office to refute this persistent rumor. Finally, on April 8 officials stated that the remains of the bodies will undergo DNA tests in order to determine the identities of the killed people. It should be added that Moscow has on several occasions prematurely announced Umarov’s death. Umarov has been the leader of the Islamist insurgency since he was established as the 5th President of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria in 2006 and later First Emir of the Caucasus Emirate, and is the most wanted man in Russia.

In the midst of this contradictory information, one thing remains certain; the death of Umarov’s closest associate, Supyan Abdullaev. Although his death went largely unnoticed, some commentators argue that the consequences of his death are far more important than they seem to be. Indeed, Supyan Abdullaev has been the most influential religious ideologue of the Caucasus movement and was supposed to be Umarov’s successor.

Russia’s National Antiterrorist Committee (NAK) stated that the counterinsurgency operation in Ingushetia was part of the Kremlin’s response to the January 24 suicide attack at the Domodedovo Airport in Moscow. The attack resulted in 37 dead and the suicide bomber was later identified as a 20-year old Ingush native. Since then, the number of reports about arrests and violent incidents in Ingushetia has increased. The Domodedovo bombing was the third major terrorist attack on major Russian transit infrastructure, within a period of 15 months. In November 2009, 27 people died when the high speed Nevsky Express train was derailed after a bomb detonated on the track. In March 2010, 40 people died as result of the suicide bombings in the Moscow Metro. Umarov has claimed responsibility for all three attacks, although doubts have been raised on his actual involvement.

When Umarov declared himself Emir of the Caucasus Emirate in October 2007, the jamaats of all the North Caucasus Republics obtained a common entity to unite under. Nevertheless, Umarov’s control over the local jamaats has always been limited and in October 2010, Umarov’s authority weakened significantly as a number of veteran rebel leaders in Chechnya renounced their allegiance to him.

It has been suggested that Supyan Abdullaev was the main architect behind the creation of the Emirate, and he has been viewed as the one who maintained the connection between the Caucasus Emirate and the Chechen commanders after the split. The death of Abdullaev could therefore be presumed to further weaken the position of Umarov and the development towards a more divided insurgency movement with more independent local jamaats is likely to continue.