Wednesday, 19 January 2011

POVERTY RISING IN ARMENIA AFTER ECONOMIC CRISIS

Published in Field Reports

By Haroutiun Khachatrian (1/19/2011 issue of the CACI Analyst)

The National Statistical Service of Armenia released the report “Armenia: Social Snapshot and Poverty”, which summarizes the data of a survey conducted on almost 8,000 households countrywide in 2009. All urban and rural communities were included in the sample.

The National Statistical Service of Armenia released the report “Armenia: Social Snapshot and Poverty”, which summarizes the data of a survey conducted on almost 8,000 households countrywide in 2009. All urban and rural communities were included in the sample. The report also contains data and information available from the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs, the Ministry of Health Care, and the Ministry of Education and Science. It presents the poverty levels in Armenia in 2008 and 2009, and contains an updated methodology for determining the poverty level (a new assessment of the consumer basket value, different from the one applied earlier for the years 2004-2008).

The total monthly income of adults living below the upper (poor) poverty line was estimated to be 30,920 Armenian Drams (US$ 85.1); AMD 25,217 (US$ 69.4) for those below the lower (very poor) poverty line; and AMD 17.483 (US$ 48.1) for the extremely poor. According to the report, for the first time since 1998, Armenia saw an increase in the poverty rate in 2009. It was attributed to the global economic crisis, as Armenia suffered a record decrease in its GDP level in that year, 14.4 percent below the level of the previous year.

According to the report, 34.1 percent of the population was poor in 2009, including 20.1 percent being very poor and 3.6 percent extremely poor. In 2008, 27.6 percent were considered poor, 12.6 percent very poor and 1.6 percent extremely poor. Between 2008 and 2009, 214,000 people became poor, raising the total to 1.1 million people. Likewise, 245,000 people became very poor, raising the total to over 650,000. The number of extremely poor rose to 117,000, with the addition of 65,000 people who became extremely poor, leading to the conclusion that poverty in 2009 became both deeper and more severe. The report further showed that in the marzes (provinces) Shirak, Kotayk, Lori, Gegharquniq, and Ararat, the poverty rate was higher than the national average. In Shirak, where the consequences of the 1988 earthquake are most severe, 47.2 percent of the population lived below the poverty line, making it the poorest region in Armenia. The percentage of children aged 0-18, living below the poverty line was 38.1, and 4.5 for those below the extreme poverty line. The child poverty rate was highest in Lori marz, at 9 percent, and lowest in Vayotz Dzor, at 1.9 percent.

Interestingly, a significant percentage of those who fell within the poverty line did not consider themselves to be poor. Poverty estimates based on personal judgment of individuals regarding their own welfare tended to be lower than those attained using consumption per adult equivalent as an objective welfare measure (17.9 percent and 34.1 percent, respectively). Only 2.9 percent of households perceived themselves to be extremely poor, and 15 percent to be very poor (excluding the extremely poor), as compared to the 3.6 percent and 30.5 percent, respectively, when assessed by the consumption per adult equivalent. At the same time, the life expectancy in Armenia in 2009 remained higher than in 1990 and higher than in many countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, 70.6 years for men and 77.0 years for women, respectively. Newborn mortality was 10.4 per thousand, again better than in 1990 and 2000 with 18.5 and 15.6 per mille respectively. This is attributed to the existence of relatively good medical services in Armenia. Armenia has a problem of targeting its state family allowances as only 58 percent of the households which were “extremely poor” before the allowances were recognized as eligible to them (77.5% in 2008). At the same time, less than 6 percent of the poor were lacking permanent housing. 

As usual, the report on the poverty level, which has been conducted every year since 2001, was released one year later than the year under study. Thus, the report for 2009 was released in December 2010. Hence, there is no information on whether the moderate recovery of the Armenian economy in 2010, a 2.6 percent rise in the GDP according to preliminary assessments, has had any impact on the poverty level in the country.
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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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