During the international conference “Tajikistan and Russia-2010” in Dushanbe on December 9, Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs representative Maksim Peshkov stated to journalists that Russian border guards are ready to return to protect the Tajik-Afghan border. The statement drew attention from both Tajik and Russian authorities and experts, as it seems that Tajikistan would rather receive Russian support in a different form.

Russian border guards left the Tajik-Afghan border in 2005, when an agreement on the withdrawal of Russian border troops was reached. Since then, Russian authorities have frequently raised the issue of a return of Russian troops. In addition, Russian PM Vladimir Putin recently said regarding the 201st Russian military base, which is still located in Tajikistan, that “a serious sign of mutual trust is the cooperation between military departments and the presence of full-scale, full-fledged Russian military base in Tajikistan that operates here on a long-term basis”.

During the conference, Peshkov stated that “taking into account the situation in Afghanistan and the growing threat of terrorism, Russia is ready to come back to the Tajik-Afghan border”. Thus, he added that if Tajikistan will request Russian protection of its borders, there is no reason to decline such a request. He also noted that “the question of returning Russian border guards to the Tajik border is in the phase of consideration”, and currently the border services of Tajikistan and Russia have a working group that discusses further cooperation.

The director of the strategic research center under the president of Tajikistan, Sukhrob Sharipov, thinks that the idea of a renewed presence of Russian troops emerged after the U.S. authorities decided to withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan by 2014. In light of that decision, President Emomali Rahmon asked the NATO member states to strengthen the borders of his country, so that the “infection” that they leave in the region would not spread from Afghanistan to the states of Central Asia. In fact, many political scientists in Tajikistan think that the West is responsible for protecting the regional states, which are the most vulnerable to the so-called “Afghan threat”; a rise of extremism, terrorism and drug trafficking.

Independent Tajik expert Sayfullo Mullodjonov, along with many other local experts, thinks that a return of the Russian border troops may worsen the situation not only in Tajikistan, but across Central Asia, “as during the last ten years the region has become an arena for the conflict of interests among the major world players”. He also notes that during the last five years, when the border between Tajikistan and Afghanistan has been guarded by Tajik troops, no serious events that would undermine border security have occurred. Sharipov agrees that Tajik border guards have acquired professional status. He admits, however, that Tajikistan still needs material and technical help in strengthening the border.

Russian experts explain that Russian authorities understand that Tajikistan may attract an increased U.S. presence after the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. Thus, Russian experts think Russia is more concerned with the fact that the U.S. has commenced the construction of a training center for Tajikistan’s military forces 45 kilometers from Dushanbe, and it is possible that this center will acquire the status of a base. Moreover, it is known that the Pentagon plans to place elite units of the U.S. Special Forces with experience of fighting in Afghanistan on Tajikistan’s territory.

Another role of the Russian troops on Tajikistan’s border, according to Russian experts, is to protect Tajikistan from the “export of civil war” from Afghanistan. It should be recalled that during last fall, Russian observers claimed that about 1,500 Afghan and Pakistani militants fight in the east of Tajikistan. President Rahmon initially dismissed this information, but it was later revealed that the militants eliminated in the east of the country included members of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, which is based in Pakistan.

The Russian authorities’ statement of readiness to provide military troops for guarding the Tajik-Afghan border did not yet receive an absolutely positive reaction of Tajikistan. Russia will obviously seek to maintain its sphere of influence in Tajikistan, and especially in light of the planned increase of U.S. presence in the country. Russia possesses several political and economic levers on Tajikistan to accomplish these objectives. At the same time, even if Tajikistan will eventually ask Russia to help protect its border, the increased military presence in the country of two major players will allow Tajikistan to take advantage of the conflicting views of Moscow and Washington for its own purposes.