Hopes for real progress in the peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict have deteriorated over the last month, as both sides have been acting according to the principle of “a tooth for a tooth”.

Since early August, mixed emotions of fury and pride were roused in Azerbaijani society after four images of an Azerbaijani soldier who was killed during the June incident were posted on the social network “odnoklassniki.ru”. Dozens of internally displaced persons and veterans of the Nagorno-Karabakh war held a rally on August 4 in central Azerbaijan, demanding that Armenian authorities return the body of Mubariz Ibrahimov.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has bestowed the title of "national hero" to Ibrahimov. He has also ordered that a school and a street in Bilasuvar, Ibrahimov’s native district, be named after him.

The three OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs Russia, France and the U.S. have noted increased tension in the region, including the armed incident during the night of June 18-19 on the line of contact in the Terter region, and “inflammatory” public statements. The incident reportedly left four Armenian conscripts dead and four injured. Reportedly at least one Azerbaijani soldier was killed. 

The incident happened the day after the summit between the presidents of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia in St. Petersburg on June 17. Armenia connected the incident with President Ilham Aliyev’s hasty departure for Baku after the trilateral meeting initiated by President Medvedev and considered the incident an act of armed blackmail by Azerbaijan. In response, official Baku stated that it is not satisfied with the current status quo and that the incident once again demonstrated that the conflict is not frozen. The last high level meetings between Armenian and Azerbaijani officials reinforced the perception that the talks had reached a deadlock.

The Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Edward Nalbandian and Elmar Mammadyarov, met on July 16 on the margins of an informal OSCE ministerial meeting in Almaty, Kazakhstan. On July 17, both met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner and U.S. Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg. In the statement following the meeting, Lavrov, Kouchner and Steinberg stressed that “the efforts made so far by the parties to the conflict have not been sufficient to overcome their differences.” They “urged a greater spirit of compromise to reach agreement” on a common basis for continuing the negotiations.

During the talks, official Baku appears to expect reaching an agreement on a timetable for implementing the various components of the so-called Basic (or Madrid) Principles for resolving the conflict. These principles relate to the return of the occupied territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh; an interim status for Nagorno-Karabakh guaranteeing its security and self-governance; a corridor linking Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh; the final status of Nagorno-Karabakh to be determined in the future by a legally binding expression of public will; the right of all internally displaced persons and refugees to return; and international security guarantees, including a peacekeeping operation.

Azerbaijan considered negotiations over the timeframe for the proposed withdrawal of Armenian troops to be a major concession and before the meeting in Almaty, Baku shed light on some major components. In early July, President Aliyev told representatives of the Azerbaijani population in Nagorno-Karabakh that Armenian troops will withdraw from the Aghdam, Fizuli, Jabrail, Zangelan, and Gubadly districts of Azerbaijan immediately after the peace agreement is signed and from the Lachin and Kelbajar districts over five years. “…the Azerbaijani population will return to all districts, including Nagorno-Karabakh, and much more time will probably be required for this. Peacekeeping troops will be deployed on the border with Nagorno-Karabakh …” Nagorno-Karabakh will be given an interim status which, according to Aliyev, will not violate Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity.

Mammadyarov presented the five year plan for the withdrawal of troops from Lachin and Kelbajar as a compromise, saying that former Armenian President Robert Kocharyan insisted on ten years, while Azerbaijan demanded that troops are withdrawn in one year. However, President Sarkisian initially proposed seven and Azerbaijan three years. According to the minister, the mediators suggested a five-year period, to which Azerbaijan has already given its consent.

These statements enraged official Yerevan. “It is an absolute lie, the Armenian side has never discussed the issue of Lachin and Kelbajar’s return to Azerbaijani jurisdiction”, stated Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian. 

It seems that Yerevan decided to drop its expectations on Baku and during the Almaty meeting Nalbandian put forward the issue of status for Karabakh instead of discussing the timetable for Armenian withdrawal from the surrounding territories. Officials from the Minsk Group co-chairs urged the parties to take “additional actions” to reinforce the ceasefire along the frontline and “create a more favorable atmosphere for further political dialogue and reaching agreements.” They renewed their commitment to supporting the sides in reaching a peace agreement, but reiterated that the primary responsibility to end the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict still remains with the Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders. “The co-chairs have urged the sides to prevent renewed hostilities. But then Armenian troops should withdraw from the occupied territories of Azerbaijan. The earlier this happens, the better for everyone”, Mammadyarov concluded.

Meanwhile, the risk remains that almost daily shootings along the frontline, including the Line of Contact and the international border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, could spiral out of control and result in a new conflict. On August 10, Armenian Defense Minister Seyran Ohanian said the Armenian government plans to acquire long-range, precision-guided weapons for possible armed conflicts with hostile neighbors. Public statements by Baku suggest it will not stop its military rhetoric until Armenia returns Azerbaijani territories under occupation. Thus, it appears that neither side will follow the mediators’ calls to remove their snipers from the frontline.