Recent developments in Central Asia seem to have affected relations between the U.S. and Uzbekistan positively. These relations have not been characterized as cooperative during the past several years. However, either due to the unstable security situation in the region following the bloody clashes in southern Kyrgyzstan or the increasing role of Uzbekistan in providing logistical assistance for U.S. operations in Afghanistan, an increased U.S. presence in Uzbekistan now seems viable.

The dialogue between Tashkent and Washington was renewed last year, when leaders of the two states signed a plan of action for strengthening bilateral cooperation for the year 2010.

Several visits of high-ranking U.S. officials to Uzbekistan took place in the end of June. Among those were the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Population, Refugees, and Migration Eric Schwartz, the Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asian Affairs Robert Blake, and the Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights and Labor, Michael Posner. It should also be noted that Barack Obama recently nominated George Krol, who currently holds the position of Deputy Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asian Affairs to the post of U.S. Ambassador to Uzbekistan. Many experts consider this nomination as signaling a special role for Uzbekistan in U.S. foreign affairs.

During a business-forum in Washington DC last week, where Uzbekistan participated, Robert Blake reported that the U.S. invests US$ 500 million in Uzbekistan and that these investments may potentially be increased. It is already known that in 2010-2011, the U.S. will invest in a number of projects within the framework of the program “Provision in the name of progress”. In total, the program amounts to 2,411 billion Uzbek Soms (approximately US$ 1.5 million). The projects within this program will be implemented within areas such as water industry, hydrometeorology, veterinary science, healthcare, social protection and support for small businesses.

At the same forum, Uzbekistan’s Ambassador to the U.S., Ilhom Nematov, and its Deputy Minister of External Economic Relations and Trade, Shavkat Tulyaganov, proposed that the U.S. invest in the Free Industrial Economic Zone “Navoi”, which is currently the main logistic base for delivering goods to Afghanistan. 

In fact, the U.S. has been interested in this project for a long time already. The current U.S. Ambassador to Uzbekistan, Richard Norland, suggests that the “Navoi” base will in the future transform into a transcontinental transportation-expeditionary air cargo hub, which would connect the Far East, South-East Asia, South Asia and Europe.

Furthermore, it seems that the U.S. plans to expand its presence in Central Asia, and specifically in Uzbekistan. The Federal Business Opportunities website reports that the U.S. Department of Defense plans to establish a number of military bases in Afghanistan and in the states of Central Asia. More specifically, the construction of an operational military base is planned fifty kilometers away from the Afghan-Uzbek border, which would include an operations centre, a strategic operations centre, a training centre, a material-technical provision centre, warehouses, living facilities, etc. In addition, the U.S. plans to build border check points and training bases in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan where U.S. military personnel would provide training for local defense forces.  

Aleksey Malashenko of the Carnegie Moscow Center states that this type of cooperation is mutually beneficial for Uzbekistan and the U.S. He thinks that in light of the instability in neighboring Kyrgyzstan, where the U.S. operates from the Manas airbase, additional U.S. military bases in the region would ensure the continuity of U.S. operations in Afghanistan. Thus, a U.S. base in Uzbekistan would not become an alternative to Manas, but rather be part of the new U.S. strategy to have bases at numerous locations.

During the business forum, Blake mentioned the increasing role Uzbekistan currently plays in transferring U.S. cargo to Afghanistan. Thus, he stated that “Uzbekistan is already vitally important in the realization of international efforts in fighting militant extremists in Afghanistan”. Uzbek authorities have not yet officially responded to the U.S. messages. However, it seems that in light of the current security situation in the region and increased U.S. investments in Uzbekistan, a positive outcome is more than possible.