Thursday, 29 April 2010

KARIMOV VISITS MOSCOW – A WARMING IN UZBEK-RUSSIAN RELATIONS?

Published in Field Reports

By Erkin Akhmadov (4/29/2010 issue of the CACI Analyst)

On April 19, 2010, President Islam Karimov of Uzbekistan arrived to Moscow for a two-day visit. Several observers related the visit to the recent events in Kyrgyzstan, as if Uzbekistan was seeking support of Russia in an unstable situation in the region.

On April 19, 2010, President Islam Karimov of Uzbekistan arrived to Moscow for a two-day visit. Several observers related the visit to the recent events in Kyrgyzstan, as if Uzbekistan was seeking support of Russia in an unstable situation in the region. However, the visit was planned back in December, but postponed due to the cooling of relations between the two states. The visit had several positive outcomes and shed light on the parties’ positions on certain issues; even though some observers argue that no important problems were resolved.

Several documents were signed as a result of the visit. Specifically, the parties signed a program of cooperation between the two governments in the cultural-humanitarian sphere for the years 2010-2012, and a memorandum of mutual understanding on the implementation of activities in the sphere of military-technical cooperation between the Russian Federation and Uzbekistan for the years 2010-2012.

One of the major issues discussed by the presidents was the current situation in Kyrgyzstan. The presidents agreed that Russia and Uzbekistan want the authorities in Kyrgyzstan to be strong, and the people of Kyrgyzstan to develop and prosper. At the same time, the president of Uzbekistan criticized certain Russian mass media reporting, which stated that the “Uzbek authorities are frightened, while the Uzbek population is delighted by the deeds of the freedom-loving Kyrgyz people”. The Uzbek leader invited everyone to the Kyrgyz-Uzbek border to observe the contrary. Furthermore, President Karimov expressed concerns that the processes in Kyrgyzstan may become uncontrolled, and that unrest may attain a “permanent nature”.

The presidents also discussed bilateral trade, which in 2009 amounted to US$ 4.5 billion, a decrease by one quarter from the previous year. The parties expressed their willingness to expand bilateral trade through new projects and new trade agreements. Russian president Dmitry Medvedev highlighted the possibilities for future closer cooperation in such areas as energy, aircraft construction, processing and chemical industries, telecommunications and transport.

Speaking of cooperation in the cultural sphere, President Medvedev underlined that he “values the position of the Uzbek authorities in relation to the Russian language, which is widely taught in schools and higher educational institutions of the country”. In response, President Medvedev proposed broadcasting some Uzbek channels in Russia through satellite television.

In addition, the parties discussed hydro-energy issues in the Central Asian region. Uzbekistan and Russia supported the conduct of an international assessment for evaluating the possible consequences of constructing hydroelectric power stations on trans-boundary rivers in the region.

The presidents of Russia and Uzbekistan expressed their content with the outcomes of the visit, terming it “very substantial and utterly sincere”. In spite of this, several significant issues in bilateral relations were not addressed at all during the meeting. For instance, Tashkent still refuses to admit its debt to Russia, which amounts to US$ 700 million. Because of this debt, Russia cannot provide Uzbekistan with credits. Another issue of concern for Russia is the refusal of Uzbek banks to exchange the profits made by Russian entrepreneurs in Uzbekistan in national currency into U.S. Dollars or Euros. As a consequence, it is estimated that about US$ 60-150 million of such profits are frozen in Uzbekistan.

Last but not least, the parties did not discuss Uzbekistan’s return to the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Community or joining the Collective Rapid Response Forces under the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Nevertheless, the presidents did emphasize the necessity of strengthening common efforts to fight terrorism, religious extremism and other challenges and threats to regional and international security. Several observers still connect the visit and sudden rapprochement between Uzbekistan and Russia to the recent events in Kyrgyzstan, speculating that these events pose a threat to its neighbors, and that it is therefore in Karimov’s interest to consult with Russia. Thus, even though both presidents emphasized that the visit was planned long ahead, it is clear that Kyrgyzstan was one of the major issues on the agenda.

Setting this aspect aside, the effectiveness of the visit should perhaps be assessed on the basis of the countries’ longer-term relations. It seems that Uzbekistan and Russia did address some of the current challenges and issues of concern for both states, while many others were left untackled.
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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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