The upcoming mayoral elections are increasingly causing confusion among Georgian opposition leaders. The political maneuvers of the most popular opposition candidate, Irakli Alasania, between Western-oriented and pro-Russian parties last week have decreased the opposition’s chances of winning the post of Tbilisi Mayor.

Independently from Alliance for Georgia (uniting Alasania’s Our Georgia – Free Democrats with the New Rights and Republican parties), the reputed pro-Western opposition leader unexpectedly decided to start consultations with more Russia-oriented opposition groups headed by former Prime Minister Zurab Nogaideli, (now leading the Movement for Fair Georgia Party) on a single mayoral candidacy on February 22.

The decision came as a surprise to the alliance members since in late December the coalition released a joint statement positing that they were ready to launch consultations based on the formula of “all minus one” meaning the exclusion of Nogaideli from political cooperation over the candidate for mayoral race.

Alasania later made an appearance at Nogaideli's political party meeting, which united some opposition parties and prominent figures on February 24. Alasania's unexpected step surprised his partners and strengthened Nogaideli's position after most opposition parties had declared it unacceptable to cooperate with him.

Before Alasania, the Conservative and People's parties were the only opposition powers who had joined Nogaideli, but this had not triggered any alarm among the Georgian opposition. However, if Alasania would decide to cooperate with the Russia-oriented camp, this would significantly shift the opposition’s political profile.

This probability is underlined by the fact that Levan Gachechiladze, leader of the public movement Defend Georgia, also appeared at the meeting, presenting himself as an influential political leader capable of re-configuring opposition forces ahead of the local elections.

Under such inconvenient circumstances, the New Rights and Republicans refrained from criticizing Alasania, publicly assuring their supporters that the actions of the latter would not mean the collapse of the Alliance for Georgia. However, the other Alliance leaders stated that if Alasania decides to participate in the primary elections planned by Nogaideli’s coalition, he would automatically be excluded from the Alliance for Georgia.

The idea of primary elections was initiated by the Conservative Party and later adopted by the Party of People and Nogaideli’s Movement for Fair Georgia, implies designating a single opposition leader through internal elections. This is thought to ensure the broad unification of all opposition forces around one single candidate, which will supposedly increase the likelihood of defeating the ruling National Movement’s candidate in the local elections. Nevertheless, the Alliance for Georgia denounced the idea of primary elections in cooperation with the Nogaideli-led groups for two reasons. According to Davit Gamkrelidze, leader of New Rights, it is “a trap set up by the authorities” to detect the weakest opposition candidate through the preliminary results and then encourage its supporters to vote for him. Second, Nogaideli’s recent approach to the Russian political establishment is unacceptable for the Alliance.  

For these reasons, New Rights and the Republicans were likely astonished viewing Alasania alongside Nogaideli and Gachechiladze at the meeting on February 24.

But the surprises did not end here. Four days later, Alasania rejected the possibility of participating in the primary elections and denied any prospects for cooperation with Nogaideli's party. After receiving warning signals from political allies, Alasania likely came back to the Alliance to avoid losing his status as the only opposition candidate able to challenge the incumbent Tbilisi mayor, Gigi Ugulava.

His popularity to a large extent stems from his image of a calm and reassuring politician, in contrast with the impulsive and gregarious President Mikheil Saakashvili. Many hope Alasania’s modesty, quietness and diplomatic experience could lead to the emergence of a new era in Georgian politics, including coming to terms with Russia on the one hand and a capacity to deal with adversary political factions within the country on the other hand. Alasania’s qualities are even more important considering his assumed pro-Western orientation and his commitment to liberal principles and norms. This is why many consider him a figure that could overcome the country’s political standoff.

Despite these hopes, Alasania has not been able to produce elaborated visions on security or economic policy for the country and has failed to introduce himself as a strong leader with a clear political agenda since the Party Our Georgia-Free Democrats was formed on July 16, 2009. Though Alasania sought to explain his political maneuvering by a desire to achieve a broader consensus among the oppositional forces, his justifications did not have a persuasive effect.

Such ambiguity has invoked disappointment among Georgians looking for a measured figure which would be a credible alternative of president Saakashvili. However, it also showed that a considerable part of the Georgian electorate requests smooth diplomacy with a principled Western orientation, which can guide the country towards rule by institutions rather than individuals. Alasania’s recent actions seem to suggest that this political niche is still vacant.