On October 21, President Kurmanbek Bakiyev was supposed to meet with the opposition’s leaders. But this failed due to an unexpected increase in the number of people in the president’s entourage, which contradicted the previously agreed composition of participants – the president, prime minister, and head of the president’s administration face to face with 14 representatives of the opposition. The opposition promptly turned down its intention to proceed with the meeting. It believes the president wanted to confront it with the leaders of pro-presidential parties and non-governmental organizations, and to set himself as an arbiter. It reinforced the opposition’s conviction that the president easily abandons entered agreements.

On October 27, President Bakiyev announced at a the roundtable with nongovernmental organizations that he would present his own draft of a new constitution, aspects of which were not mentioned, to parliament before November 20. The president admitted that the constitutional reform process was “a little” delayed. “Now, the people are ready for reforms”, he reasoned, mentioning his public intention for a referendum planned for this December.

The president also visited the Issik-Kul, Jalalabad, and Batken oblasts to “meet” the people. It is believed that President Bakiyev tried to gain political support and to reduce the necessity for constitutional reforms. Despite the open discontent of non-governmental organizations and political parties, the president still blames a handful of politicians in the parliament for destabilizing the country. The president does not exclude the possibility to dissolve the parliament if the political crisis continues until the end of the year.

As the date of the rally approaches, the statements of the opposition and the president have become increasingly confrontational, blaming each other for the suspension of constitutional reforms. Almazbek Atambaev, a hardliner leader of the Social-Democratic party, said publicly that the president is a “political corpse”, referring to the president’s failed reaction to the demands, which have dragged on since April.

The leaders of movement For Reforms say that they are capable of keeping the rally going for a week. “I am sure that the outcome will be clear in a day or two”, says a member of the opposition, parliamentarian Melis Eshimkanov. He anticipates two outcomes: either the president conforms, or there is a serious clash, which might resemble the aftermath of the March 2005 events. Nevertheless, the opposition assures that they will not break into the white house. On March 24, the opposition did not plan to do so either, but it ended up overthrowing the former president, Askar Akaev.

The opposition claims that its lines are being filled with people from law-enforcement agencies, the National Security Service, the president’s administration, university teachers (calling for the resignation of Minister of Education Nur uulu Dosbol), and other disappointed people. This may be explained by a genuine dissatisfaction of the people as well as by the opposition’s hawkish attitude, which by calling for politicians to define their positions implicitly says people are either “with us or against us”.

Considering the direness of the situation on the rally, with the crowd possibly reaching up to 20,000 people, the movement For Reforms plans to provide security by coordinated efforts with law-enforcement officers totaling 2,000 people. On the other hand, the impartiality of some law-enforcement officers is questioned, as some m ay be supporting the demands of the opposition.

Even though the opposition itself rejects it, some political experts like Alexander Knyazev say the opposition’s unity is temporary, and based on the aim to get rid of President Bakiyev. “What matters is not a single person but the system”, emphasizes Almazbek Atambaev. The representatives of the movement For Reforms made known that they have come to a consensus over the constitution. Nevertheless, they discredit the tandem between the president and prime minister, which, as they say, lost its purpose, to balance the north and south.

Agym, an opposition-oriented newspaper belonging to Melis Eshimkanov, revealed the rumor that President Bakiyev, his brothers, and General Prosecutor Kambaraly Kongantiev moved their families out of Bishkek. It also says that the government is working on means to oppose the protestors.

Prime Minister Felix Kulov and the Parliament’s Speaker Marat Sultanov, who try to keep a position of neutrality in the political confrontation, ask the sides to come to an agreement in order to avoid an escalation of the political crisis.

Nonetheless, it seems like a paralyzing blow to the president has already been dealt: Russian services officially confirmed Boris Berezovsky’s visit to Kyrgyzstan, which the president so strongly denied.