On one side stands Rauf Arifoglu, the editor-in-chief of the Yeni Musavat newspaper – the most influential newspaper in the country and deputy chairman of the party, as well as Arif Haci, another deputy chairman. They were arrested in October 2003 in connection with the violent protests that broke out following the Presidential elections. Arifoglu has always been the maverick of the party, often opposing even the leadership style of the party chairman Isa Gambar. Having served for a year and a half in prison on charges of attempting to stage a coup d’etat, this tandem was now opposing the nomination of Sulheddin Akbar, also a deputy chairman of the party, to the chairmanship of the Supreme Council. They accuse Akbar and his ally, Vurgun Eyyub, also a deputy chairman, of serving the interests of the ruling party and closely collaborating with them. Back in October 2003, Eyyub managed to escape arrest and Akbar was released shortly after he was arrested, raising suspicions that he testified against his party comrades.

The first election back in May 2006 did not produce a result, as the bitter attacks of the two groupings on each other did not produce the necessary amount of votes in favor of either of them. After that, Arif Haci withdrew his candidacy and Akbar had to face a new candidate, member of the Supreme Council Nasib Nasibli, regarded by many as a unifying and centrist person. The by-elections held last week turned into a bitter battle of words between the rivaling groups and eventually resulted in the election of Akbar to the chairmanship of the Supreme Council.

Rauf Arifoglu has reacted by saying, “Too sad that the murky plan of the authorities has been materialized. They have always wanted to put their own man in the leadership of Musavat.” It is interesting that during this whole painful period of mutual accusations, the chairman of the party, Isa Gambar, took rather a neutral position and did not endorse any of the candidates. He rejected media speculations about the possible split inside the party and insisted that the ongoing processes were part of democratic practice and normal inter-party discussions. “Musavat will emerge from this process only as a stronger party,” said Gambar in an interview to Yeni Musavat newspaper.

Local analysts are unsure whether this forecast will prove true. Indeed, not only Musavat, but the entire opposition front is experiencing stagnation due to the frustration among opposition members with their lack of results. Being in opposition for more than 15 years has tired many of them. Musavat, although remaining on top of national politics, is gradually loosing its support base. At the same time, constant attacks from the rivaling opposition parties, mainly the Azadliq bloc, for Musavat’s decision to take up their seats in the new elected Parliament (Musavat has five MPs in the Parliament) further adds to the troubles.

At the moment, though, Musavat seems the most ready and willing of all opposition parties to embrace change. The leadership of the party, having witnessed a bitter loss in the last elections, seems to have realized that the current tactic of radical opposition is not working. The party adopted a new strategy in its last party Congress in May of this year, and announced itself ready to work on real issues rather than simply against the regime.

Yet, it is not clear if the party will be able to emerge from this latest round of inner-party feud in a stable and united way. The ongoing changes in the country and the inflow of oil revenues add to the difficulties that the opposition parties have in attracting voters, as the government constantly increases spending on public projects and infrastructure development. Musavat, along with other opposition parties, will now have to focus on grassroots activities and long-term relations with voter to win their hearts and minds.