On September 4, Uzbek President Islam Karimov arrived in Astana on his first visit to Kazakhstan. He arrived at the invitation, as it was officially announced by the Uzbek Foreign Ministry, of Nursultan Nazarbayev. The Uzbek leader, who incessantly thanked his Kazakh counterpart for the cordial welcome stressing the “historic” friendship between the two nations, lavished praised the fast growth rate of the Kazakh economy and did not conceal his enchantment with the rapidly expanding capital of Astana. Nursultan Nazarbayev in his turn said that his country was ready to cooperate with its neighbor in all spheres. But he was visibly perplexed when Islam Karimov, overwhelmed by emotions, quite unexpectedly said: “I can give you whatever you ask for!” “We don’t ask too much,” smiled Nazarbayev.

Observers in Tashkent and Astana can easily guess why the usually assertive Islam Karimov suddenly became so pliant and ostentatiously friendly towards his rival for the leadership in the region. After the withdrawal of the American air force from the Khanabad air base, and the unanimous condemnation of the Andijan bloodbath by the West, the Uzbek economy is in bad shape. The situation throws Tashkent into the arms of Astana, a vitally important economic and political partner. No wonder in the face of dwindling American investments, Islam Karimov stepped up dealings with Kazakhstan in all spheres, trying to remove political obstacles such as interminable disputes over water sharing, and reciprocal accusations of border violations. In the first half of the current year the trade volume between the two countries reached $293.4 million, showing a 27.3 percent growth rate over the same period last year.

Nursultan Nazarbayev expressed his satisfaction with the growing trade, saying that the year 2006 saw a breakthrough in the development of Kazakh-Uzbek relations. The Development Bank of Kazakhstan opened a branch office in Tashkent. For the next year, both sides plan to link Astana with Tashkent with a railway line. The Kazakh railway authorities introduced low transit tariffs for exports of Uzbek cotton and fruits to other countries. However small, these steps show the signs of intensification of relations between the two countries. Nursultan Nazarbayev and Islam Karimov signed nine documents relating to various areas of economic cooperation and made a joint declaration of intentions to develop friendly ties.

The interests of Astana in maintaining good-neighborly ties with Tashkent are motivated also by security reasons. Some political analysts in Kazakhstan assume that by brutally suppressing the Andijan riots, Islam Karimov not only reinforced his despotic rule, but, more importantly, prevented the tide of extremism from spilling over to neighboring countries, including Kazakhstan. In that sense, the argument goes, the iron hand of Islam Karimov deserves credit for the relatively strong political stability in Central Asia. Astana and Moscow would like to see Uzbekistan economically and militarily strong, to face potential challenges from outside destabilizing forces and religious extremism at home. The Uzbek economy, still ailing, showed some encouraging signs of recovery last year with 7 per cent GDP growth and 7.3 percent increase in industrial production. However, with wide-spread unemployment and extreme poverty in densely populated regions, it is a long way from economic prosperity.

In recent months Islam Karimov, unlike the Turkmen leader Saparmurad Niyazov, never opposed the integration between Kazakhstan and Russia, made unequivocal statements in favor of the Eurasian Economic Community, seeing this structure as a basis for uniting all Central Asian states around Russia. Recently, Tashkent made another significant gesture, joining the Collective Security Treaty Organization haughtily snubbed by Karimov for years. Nursultan Nazarbayev welcomed his Uzbek counterpart’s proposal to hold joint Uzbek-Kazakh military exercises. It is yet to be seen, who will benefit more from military cooperation. The Uzbek army faces severe material and financial problems.

After the United States and Western Europe turned their backs to Tashkent, Kazakhstan is the best choice as a helping hand for Uzbekistan which badly needs Kazakh investments into its crippled economy. Uzbekistan also wants to reach agreement with Kazakhstan to use jointly the KazSat satellite launched this year.

Despite the seemingly successful development of relations between the two countries, unresolved problems still remain. Will Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have enough willingness to solve them in a brotherly manner? At any rate, the future shape of the ties between the two countries will be significantly influenced by American and Russian policy in the region.