Having witnessed severe pressures from Russia in the field of energy supplies last winter, Ukrainian authorities are keen to diversify the list of their energy partners and thus better prepare for the upcoming winter. The issues of energy security and cooperation in the field of energy refineries have topped the agenda of the inter-governmental meeting, which took place in Baku last week. Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Kluyev, who headed the Ukrainian delegation, met with President Ilham Aliyev and discussed the points of interests for the Yushchenko’s upcoming visit. It is expected that during the visit, Azerbaijan’s State Oil Company (SOCAR) will sign an agreement with “NAFTOGAZ Ukraina” on bilateral investments, the construction of new enterprises, the organization of exploration works in the energy field in the territories of both countries, an increase of the volume of Azerbaijani oil exported to Ukraine, and cooperation in the field of agriculture and environment.

In the context of the oil exports, Yushchenko is also expected to raise the issue of the Odessa-Brody pipeline, which until very recently has been operating as an export pipeline for Russian oil. The Ukrainian President is eager to reverse the flow of oil and make it an export outlet for Caspian oil to European markets. This would require the extension of the pipeline from Brody to the Polish city of Gdansk, something which was on the agenda of discussions between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and his Polish counterpart last year. If implemented, this pipeline project will reduce the energy dependence of Ukraine, Poland and other EU countries from Russia.

Azerbaijan does not seem to be against the Odessa-Brody-Gdansk pipeline, yet is cautious about promising immediate supplies of oil. The recently constructed Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) main oil export pipeline still needs significant amount of oil to be used to its maximum extent. Kazakhstan has joined the BTC pipeline, yet the lack of an agreement on the legal status of the Caspian Sea prevents the construction of a pipeline under the Caspian sea, thus limiting the volumes of the export of Kazakh oil. Last week, SOCAR officials stated that Azerbaijan planned to stop using Baku- Novorossiysk (Russia) pipeline for the export of Azerbaijani oil for exactly the same reasons.

Nevertheless, Azerbaijani experts are optimistic. Gubad Ibadoglu, the chairman of the Economic Research Center and Sabit Nagirov, head of the FAR Center, stated in their interviews to the Echo newspaper that Azerbaijan might agree to transport its oil through the Ukrainian pipeline should the tariffs and economic conditions be favorable.

Meanwhile, another issue that drew much attention among local analysts regarding the visit of the Ukrainian President is democracy. Prior the Orange revolution, Yushchenko has had warm relations with the Azerbaijani opposition, and even signed a memorandum of cooperation with the Musavat party. Many Azerbaijani opposition leaders, such as Ali Kerimli, Isa Gambar and others, traveled to Ukraine during the Orange revolution to support Yushchenko and his coalition.

The news about Yushchenko’s upcoming visit to Baku and his refusal to meet with opposition leaders was portrayed by many as a betrayal to democracy. “Oil is more important for Yushchenko than democracy,” exclaimed opposition dailies. Others have tried to justify his actions by the pressures coming from the Azerbaijani government.

Nevertheless, some opposition groups put much hope to the visit of the Ukrainian President. The committee for the protection of the rights of Mirza Sakit, the satirical poet and journalist of the opposition newspaper Azadliq, arrested several weeks ago on drug possession charges have sent an appeal to President Yushchenko seeking his support in the liberation of the journalist. They believe that Mirza Sakit was arrested on false charges and that the Ukrainian President will be able to influence his Azerbaijani counterpart to stop the wave of harassment of opposition-minded journalists that has been taking place lately in Azerbaijan.