Elmar Huseynov’s murder brought much negative publicity to Azerbaijan and its authorities ahead of last year’s parliamentary elections. Many analysts blamed the government for Huseynov’s death, as his articles against the ruling elite were often harsh and slanderous. Yet, a closer look at the situation showed that there was little interest on the side of authorities to worsen the already tense political situation in the country prior the critical elections, shedding doubt on the theory of a government-ordered murder.

It is noteworthy that last year, Turkish criminologists were the first to mention the possibility of Haji Mamedov’s role in the murder of the Monitor editor, however not much attention was paid to those reports at the time. Even the official law enforcement bodies of Azerbaijan refuted that view. The investigation by the Ministry of National Security, which was responsible for the arrest of Haji Mamedov, did not provide any evidence of links between the two cases and came to the conclusion that Elmar Huseynov was murdered by two ethnic Azerbaijanis from Georgia, Tahir Khubanov and Teymuraz Aliyev. However, Mamedov did not mention these two individuals as members of his group.

At this moment, Haji Mamedov’s statement leads local analysts in three different directions. First, it is possible that this criminal gang indeed committed the murder and that the investigation by the Ministry of National Security led to the wrong suspects. This scenario is unlikely, because it is difficult to believe that Ministry of National Security did not know about Haji Mamedov’s role in this crime while investigating both cases at the same time.

Second, it is possible that Haji Mamedov mentioned the name of former Minister of Economic Development Farhad Aliyev in order to win favors from the government. Aliyev (no relation to President Ilham Aliyev) has been in detention for ten months already and yet refuses to give testimony and admit that he was guilty of funding opposition parties and preparing a coup d’etat. Farhad Aliyev claims that all these accusations are fabricated against him by his political opponents. Thus, adding Elmar Huseynov’s murder to the case of Farhad Aliyev could put more pressure against the former minister. Aliyev’s lawyer Elton Guliyev agrees with this. \"Mamedov\'s confession was merely words, we need proof. There is a presumption of innocence, and they should prove what Mamedov says. We are convinced that they have no evidence. Their goal is to create pressure on Farhad Aliyev. For the past nine months the prosecution has been unable to find anything illegal about Aliyev\'s deeds, and now people try to slander Aliyev through such shady methods,\" Guliyev told reporters.

Finally, it is possible that Haji Mamedov was pressured to take the responsibility for the murder of the editor, since many foreign organizations and local media outlets still accuse the government for concealing or not doing enough to find the murderers and solve the crime.

Time will tell which of these scenarios is right. Yet, doubts remain whether Haji Mamedov is being sincere or not. Meanwhile, the founders of the Elmar Huseynov Foundation decided to urgently hold a meeting to discuss the statement.