With a few weeks to the polls, the administration of President Nazarbayev was certainly following the parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan. Thousands of miles apart from each other, the two countries have many similarities. The economies of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan heavily depend on mining and oil industry, and the majority of the rural population in both countries, behind the façade of economic growth, is living from hand to mouth. In a sense, for Astana the Azerbaijani election is a litmus paper to show to what degree the population can tolerate old regimes.

The overwhelming majority of political analysts, including the few remaining sympathizers of the opposition, do not doubt that the incumbent President Nursultan Nazarbayev will appear as the clear winner in the elections. What lends a democratic gloss to the presidential elections is that 18 contenders, including three female candidates, have been registered with the Central Election Committee, a record number never witnessed in the election chronicles of the country. But only 5 of the registered candidates – Nursultan Nazarbayev, Mels Yeleusizov of the Environmental Association, Alikhan Baymenov, the leader of Ak Zhol Democratic party, Zarmakhan Tuyakbay, a nominee of the For Fair Kazakhstan election block and communist leader Yerasyl Abylkasymov – will take part in the final battle for the presidency on December 4, other candidates failing the Kazakh language test and falling short of constitutional requirements. An opinion poll conducted by the Eurasian rating agency from October 20 to 27 concludes that 67% of population would cast their votes for Nazarbayev and that second-rated Zharmakhan Tuyakbay would get 13% of the votes. This estimate comes close to popularity rating results made by the Association of Sociologists. The opposition paper Vremya admits that in Kazakhstan, a ‘colored revolution’, which triumphed in Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan, knocked on the wrong door. The main opposition candidate, Zharmakhan Tuyakbay, has more than a million daily copies of newspapers working for him, an enormous publicity tool not enjoyed even by Nursultan Nazarbayev, is no match for the incumbent President in terms of popularity. Nazarbayev skillfully appeals to the sentiments of the masses, and more importantly, possesses immense power of conviction supported by the spectacular social and economic achievements recorded over the last six to seven years. Speaking on October 31 at the congress of the Federation of Trade Unions of Kazakhstan, Nazarbayev promised better social protection for working people and legal protection of small business. In return, he got the unanimous support of the audience for his election platform. In another positive development, Nazarbayev succeeded in easing tensions in the oil business by substantially reducing gasoline prices. But rising inflation, disparities between incomes of foreign-owned companies and miserable payments received by local workers, unemployment among youth and women are still high on the agenda. However, these social ills can hardly affect the positive image of Nazarbayev created by powerful presidential media at home and abroad.

In this situation, complaints and critical voices of opponents to Nazarbayev are drowned in the public applause for the incumbent president, and minor breaches of the law on the part of the executive power are not addressed. The Central Election Committee has registered has registered multiple cases of refusal on the part of regional governors to provide premises for opposition candidates. The Deputy Minister of information, Yerlan Baizhanov, told journalists that two thirds of information spread by the national news agency Kazinform was dedicated to President Nursultan Nazarbayev.

The generally calm atmosphere of the pre-election period is occasionally disturbed by scuffles with the opposition. On October 28, the Prosecutor General’s Office requested Parliament to strip Senator Zauresh Battalova of her immunity from prosecution. Battalova, a supporter of Zharmakhan Tuyakbay, was accused of staging an unauthorized rally in the central area of Almaty on October 8 in support of press freedom and the jailed opposition leader Galimzhan Zhakiyanov. Parliament did not give its sanction to detain Zauresh Battalova, but Galimzhan Zhakiyanov was released from prison on probation after this incident. Politically correct methods used by Nazarbayev in dealing with his opponents are duly appreciated by the West. On the plus side of his home policy is also the growing sense of national dignity and optimism recovered by Kazakhs under Nazarbayev’s presidency. Russians and other ethnic minorities fear that interethnic peace may be threatened if anyone else comes to the office.

For many analysts, the main puzzle is not the question who wins the elections, but what shape the new government will take after Nazarbayev’s re-election and what changes into the existing system will be introduced. Earlier, addressing the business elite, Nazarbayev did not conceal his dislike for parliamentary rule. Apparently he does not favor radical changes in administrative policy either. Changes in political life and a young president is what Alikhan Baimenov, the leader of the Ak Zhol Democratic party, demands. But the majority of the population would be quite happy with the present state of affairs. Obviously, Nazarbayev is the best choice also for Washington.