The ruling party, YAP, responded with an even bigger rally on June 15, dedicated to the anniversary of former President Heydar Aliyev’s arrival from Nakhchivan to Baku in 1993 and his subsequent election to the presidency. The country is officially celebrating this day as \"Salvation Day.\"

Opposition is promising further public protests, with the next ones schedules for June 16 in Sumgait and June 18 in Baku. The one in Sumgait will be the first outside of Baku since the last election campaign in the summer of 2003. Opposition dailies and political parties are promising a massive influx of people into these demonstrations and claim that these public rallies are indicating of the people\'s anger and frustration with the ruling regime.

As the election campaign season starts, it appears that the lid on public rallies has been lifted. The change of the Azerbaijani government’s policy on the prohibition of public rallies came at a time of intense pressures from the U.S. administration and Euro-Atlantic institutions such as the OSCE and the Council of Europe, which advocate for free and fair parliamentary elections in the country and the restoration of the right for freedom of assembly. The ban was imposed after the presidential elections in October 2003, when protesting opposition members clashed with police and army and damaged some city infrastructure. One person was killed and hundreds were wounded as a result of the post-election violence at the time.

In reality, however, the authorities were afraid of public disorder and losing control over the political stability in the country. President Ilham Aliyev is still on the path of consolidating his power. Having been re-energized after the Georgian, Ukrainian and Kyrgyz upheavals, the Azerbaijani opposition promises a \"velvet revolution\" in the country should the elections be fraudulent. The united coalition of major opposition parties have last week decided on the name, color and symbol of their alliance: \"Azadlig\" (Freedom) and Orange. The similarity with Ukraine and Georgia is obvious. Besides, the Azerbaijani authorities were afraid that dissatisfied segments of the ruling party would use the opposition rallies to destabilize the situation in the country and hinder the reform agenda of President Ilham Aliyev.

At the same time, the lifting of the ban indicates the willingness of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to ensure freer and fairer election processes and the great deal of difficulty that he finds himself in trying to conduct reforms in the country while simultaneously managing the conservative \"old guard.\" The presidential decree on the improvement of the electoral process, passed before the rallies were allowed, also adds credit to the President’s performance. Yet, the refusal of the authorities to amend the electoral code so that the composition of the election commissions will change and equally represent the political forces in the country shows that the election process will not be as smooth as the international community and local opposition parties would hope. In fact, President Aliyev has already submitted the draft of the revised election code to the Parliament for adoption and the Venice commission of the Council of Europe, charged with legislative reforms in a member countries, has expressed its concerns about the composition of the election commission. The OSCE last month also criticized the election code.

It will remain a critical challenge for President Aliyev to be able to press for further reforms and improvements in the electoral process to avoid a \"velvet revolution\". Any other steps could lead to further tensions in the country on the eve of elections.