By Rahim Rahimov

January 4, 2018, the CACI Analyst

On the occasion of the 100th anniversary of the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution, a series of new documentaries and films such as “The Demon of the Revolution,” “Trotsky,” “The Great Russian Revolution” and “The Genuine History of the Russian Revolution” were broadcast on major Russian TV channels. Clearly, these films were designed to disrupt popular Russian perceptions of the revolution and instead foster a hostile narrative of the events. Alongside its major domestic motivations, this narrative also has significant implications for post-Soviet nations. 

  

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Published in Analytical Articles

 By Armen Grigoryan

December 21, 2017, the CACI Analyst

The new framework agreement between Armenia and the European Union creates some opportunities to implement governance reforms and to amend the legal framework, which would improve the investment climate. The new agreement excludes free trade provisions which would contradict Armenia’s commitment to the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). Meanwhile, EEU membership continues to undermine the welfare of Armenian citizens, despite previous official assurances, while the lack of political will deriving from both internal and external factors may potentially limit the government’s readiness to implement reforms.

  

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Published in Analytical Articles

 By Huseyn Aliyev

December 11, 2017, the CACI Analyst

The recent assassination of anti-Moscow Chechen activist Amina Okueva in Kyiv is yet another link in the chain of targeted killings of Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov’s opponents across the former Soviet Union and beyond. A former member of “Djokhar Dudayev” battalion, which fought against pro-Russian separatists in Eastern Ukraine, Okueva has been a target of pro-Kadyrov Chechens since her engagement in armed conflict in Ukraine. The event demonstrates Kadyrov’s capacity to persistently hunt down his enemies well outside the borders of Russian Federation. The inability and unwillingness of Ukrainian security services to protect Chechen volunteers, who participated in the campaign against Russian aggression in Donbas, leaves them vulnerable to persecution by Kadyrov’s associates.

  

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Published in Analytical Articles

 By Roger N. McDermott

 

November 17, 2017, the CACI Analyst

While much international attention has focused upon Russia’s joint strategic exercise with Belarus, Zapad 2017 in September, in its aftermath Moscow also staged important operational-strategic exercises on a wider scale across the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Not only was the geographical scope of these exercises greater than Zapad 2017, but their various vignettes and scenario details provide glimpses into Moscow’s planning and modelling of future conflict on its periphery.

  

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Published in Analytical Articles
Wednesday, 15 November 2017 16:19

Turkmenistan's Gas Export Dilemma

 By Dmitry Shlapentokh

November 15, 2017, the CACI Analyst

At first glance, Turkmenistan’s decision in January 2017 to stop selling gas to Iran was a minor episode in the context of an otherwise friendly relationship between Tehran and Ashgabat, as indicated by several meetings of high Iranian and Turkmen officials following the clash over gas deliveries. However, the tension with Iran could imply serious problems for Turkmenistan and lead to increasing dependence on Beijing, regardless of all Ashgabat’s maneuvering. Turkmenistan’s fallout with Iran also limits the ability of both the West and the South to access Central Asian gas and facilitates an increasing Chinese influence in this part of Eurasia, providing additional opportunities for China’s resurrection of the Silk Road. 

  

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Published in Analytical Articles

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Joint Center Publications

Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr, Modernization and Regional Cooperation in Central Asia: A New Spring, November 2018.

Book S. Frederick Starr and Svante E. Cornell, ed., Uzbekistan’s New Face, Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2018.

Article Svante E. Cornell, “Turkish-Saudi Rivalry: Behind the Khashoggi Affair,” The American Interest, November 6, 2018.

Article Mamuka Tsereteli, “Landmark Caspian Deal Could Pave Way for Long-Stalled Energy Projects,” World Politics Review, September 2018.

Article Halil Karaveli, “The Myth of Erdoğan’s Power,” Foreign Affairs, August 2018.

Book Halil Karaveli, Why Turkey is Authoritarian, London: Pluto Press, 2018.

Article Svante E. Cornell, “Erbakan, Kısakürek and the Mainstreaming of Extremism in Turkey,” Current Trends in Islamist Ideology, June 2018.

Article S. Frederick Starr and Svante E. Cornell, “Uzbekistan: A New Model for Reform in the Muslim World,” Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, May 12, 2018.

Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, Religion and the Secular State in Kazakhstan, April 2018.

Book S. Frederick Starr and Svante E. Cornell, The Long Game on the Silk Road: US and EU Strategy for Central Asia and the Caucasus, Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2018.

Article Svante E. Cornell, “Central Asia: Where Did Islamic Radicalization Go?,” Religion, Conflict and Stability in the Former Soviet Union, eds Katya Migacheva and Bryan Frederick, Arlington, VA: RAND Corporation, 2018.

 

The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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