Friday, 10 November 2006

TURKMENISTAN: POTENTIAL \'SUPER-GIANT\' EMERGES ON ENERGY SCENE

Published in News Digest

By empty (11/10/2006 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Turkmenistan\'s discovery of a \"super-giant\" natural-gas field with reserves of 7 trillion cubic meters could significantly alter the energy playing field if confirmed. Such a massive new source of gas could cause Western Europe and Russia to rethink their current strategies for ensuring gas deliveries, and threaten some highly touted projects. During his visit to Ashgabat earlier this month, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier was asked by Turkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov if Germany, along with Russia, would be interested in participating in the construction of a new natural-gas pipeline to Europe.
Turkmenistan\'s discovery of a \"super-giant\" natural-gas field with reserves of 7 trillion cubic meters could significantly alter the energy playing field if confirmed. Such a massive new source of gas could cause Western Europe and Russia to rethink their current strategies for ensuring gas deliveries, and threaten some highly touted projects. During his visit to Ashgabat earlier this month, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier was asked by Turkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov if Germany, along with Russia, would be interested in participating in the construction of a new natural-gas pipeline to Europe. Turkmenistan, Niyazov told his guest, had discovered a super-giant gas field, South Iolotansk, that he claimed has proven reserves of 7 trillion cubic meters of gas, twice that of Russia\'s Shtokman field. Steinmeier was cautious in his response to Niyazov\'s offer, saying Germany is always interested in obtaining secure gas supplies. If Niyazov\'s dream were to be fully realized, his country would add to its export capabilities to the tune of 40 billion cubic meters per year. The trans-Caspian route would also serve as an alternative (or complementary) route to the proposed Nabucco pipeline, which is supported by the United States and the EU and opposed by Russia. Despite the Turkmen president\'s enthusiasm for the project, Gazprom executives were cautious. \"Kommersant\" reported on November 7 that Gazprom Deputy Chairman Aleksandr Ryazanov admitted that the Russian gas giant\'s leadership was already aware of the proposal, but it would take until the end of the year to study it. Ryazanov told \"Kommersant\" that the Iolotansk field would require additional investment due to the high sulfur content of its gas, and that Gazprom had some doubts about the size of the field\'s reserves. Ryazanov\'s skeptical attitude can be traced to previous exaggerated claims by the Turkmen leadership about the size of its gas reserves and its reluctance to release the results of an audit of these reserves conducted by Western experts. Most Western energy-monitoring organizations agree with the June 2006 BP \"Statistical Review of World Energy,\" which estimates that Turkmenistan has 2.9 trillion cubic meters of gas reserves. If the Iolotansk field does, in fact, contain 7 trillion cubic meters, this would have a dramatic impact on the energy map of Central Asia, Europe, and Russia. (RFE/RL)
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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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