A southern export route for Caspian gas to Europe was first mooted after the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union and the emergence of three new energy-rich states - Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. But the idea has been given new life by recent increases in energy prices, and European concerns about the security of Russian gas supplies. Jeffrey Waterous, chairman of Global Union Energy Ventures, an investment company, says: \"Whether or not Gazprom will cut off supplies again is not the point. What\'s important is that the perception of risk that this might happen is high.\" But the European Commission and other supporters of the proposal face formidable political, financial and technical challenges. Significant amounts of Caspian gas are not expected to reach the EU before about 2015 - and then only if gas prices remain high. Preliminary estimates that the Caspian region holds about 9,000bn cubic metres of gas, are dwarfed by the figures for Russia and Iran, which together own about 68,000bn cubic metres, nearly half the global reserves. Oil companies argue such estimates are conservative and there could be enough to supply 40bn-80bn cubic metres annually, or 5-10 per cent of the EU\'s forecast gas demand in 2020. A European Commission paper puts the figure higher – at 10-15 per cent of demand. (www.ft.com)