Far-reaching constitutional amendments announced by President Nursultan Nazarbayev on May 17 at the joint session of the senate and majilis (lower chamber) of parliament are held up by the governing elite as a historic milestone in political reform efforts of Kazakhstan. While Nazarbayev-engineered amendments to the fundamental law of the country may not go beyond usual face-liftings within an authoritarian system, they are likely to raise Kazakhstan’s profile in the eyes of the outside world.

In an amazingly rare haste, on May 18 the usually sluggish Kazakh Parliament almost unanimously approved constitutional amendments proposed by Nursultan Nazarbayev at the session of Parliament only a day earlier. Addressing Parliament members on May 17, President Nazarbayev offered a whole set of impressive political reform packages aimed, in the first place, to enhance the role of the legislative branch of power. Nursultan Nazarbayev in his speech proposed increasing the number of deputies in Parliament from 116 to 154. According to the amendments to the Constitution approved by members of Parliament, the lower house of Parliament – the Majilis – will get 30 additional seats, and the number of senators will rise from 7 to 15. The rest of the seats will be filled by deputies elected on party lists. Some seats in parliament are reserved for members of the Association of the People of Kazakhstan (earlier named the Association of the Peoples of Kazakhstan).

On the surface, it may appear that constitutional amendments echo the long-lasting demands of the opposition for granting more power to parliament and removing obstacles for political parties to get into parliament. President Nazarbayev said the President should consult with members of parliament and factions of political parties before proposing a nominee for the post of prime minister. Earlier, the State Commission on political reforms proposed the election of half of the members of parliament by majoritarian districts and the other half by proportional representation. Nazarbayev said “we must go further” and all seats in majilis of parliament should be filled through deputies elected by proportional representation.

The most salient part of Nazarbayev’s discourse concerns Article 42, Paragraph 5 of the Constitution, amended on the insistence of the President, who proposed reducing the presidential term from 7 to 5 years. However, in a parliamentary debate, deputies Romin Madinov and Vladimir Nekhoroshev suggested a clause which eliminates the term limit for the first president of Kazakhstan. The controversial amendment was approved by parliament by an overwhelming majority of votes with one abstention and two deputies voting against. Some members of parliament headed by Yerlan Nygmatulin, called on the Parliament to exclude the new presidential term limit from the list of amendments, but finally gave up their demands. Thus, President Nazarbayev, whose term in office officially expires in 2012, gets a chance to become the lifetime president of Kazakhstan, while his successors will be allowed to hold only two five-year terms. Until the last moment, Nazarbayev did not reveal his intention to stay at the helm of the state. In his recent sideshow interview to the Spanish paper El Pais, he evasively said the question of extending his presidential term could be decided only by Parliament or referendum. But even the close entourage of the President takes a grim view of future political reforms. A few days before the joint session of parliament, Mukhtar Aliev, the father of President’s son-in-law Rakhat Aliev, told Kazakhstan Today news agency he was “deeply concerned” by unconfirmed information about the possible amendments to the Constitution relating to the terms of the presidency. Opposition leader Kazis Togusbayev thinks that by setting limits on presidential terms which can be applied only after 2012, President Nazarbayev paves the way for his undivided power as a monarch who gets authority to dissolve parliament any time he considers it appropriate.

In the final analysis, President Nazarbayev’s new political reform drive has very little to show for it. Presidential term limits introduced as an important amendment to Constitution in fact change nothing in the current structure of power, and Parliament remains closely controlled by the President who may dissolve it after formal consultation with the chairmen of the senate and majilis. Speaking before members of Parliament, Nazarbayev underscored the primacy of presidential rule for Kazakhstan while giving some power to parliament. The legislative body is entitled to select two-thirds of the members of the Constitutional Council, Central Election Committee and Audit Committee. At the regional level, akims (governors) of the regions will be appointed on the approval of maslikhats (local legislative bodies). However, given the de facto nominal role assigned to maslikhats in the regions and their high-handed treatment by governors, it is hard to believe that maslikhats would play any significant role in defining the composition of local government.

Obviously, presidential term limits and a reshaped Parliament allow Nazarbayev to create an illusion of democratic procedure while retaining the reins of power in his hands. At the same time, the indefinitely prolonged term of his presidency puts an end, for the time being, to speculations about the presidential successor within the clan and among family members, and strengthens his ruling hand. But the haste with which amendments to the Constitution were pushed through the docile Parliament gives grounds for new speculations about possible early parliamentary elections which may be held simultaneously with the elections to maslikhats scheduled for September this year. If parliamentary elections take place this year, the new parliament will end its term in 2012, when Nursultan Nazarbayev formally leaves the office at the age of 70. He is given ample time to live up to his promises.