BACKGROUND: As the Central Asian states slowly find their way in a post-Soviet world, the republics are cautious to avoid returning to a system dictated by Moscow. As they strive towards a policy of independence, the Islamic Republic of Iran is a natural geopolitical counterbalance to any perceptions of Russian chauvinism vis-à-vis Central Asia. Iran has taken strong positions on separatism and extremism, both comforting to the Central Asian republics.
A striking example of the differences between these two emerging poles can be seen in this year’s change of power in Moscow and Teheran, and the perception of these events in Central Asia. The ascendancy of Vladimir Putin and the triumph of the reformists in Iran represent two seemingly different trends. The importance of Iran’s elections, and the upset to the perceived conservative order, was closely watched the world over. It demonstrated the viability of the democratic process in a place most observers had declared anathema to republican values.
Iran’s tribulations with its moderate press and its nascent electoral system is nearly the exact opposite to the victory of KGB apparatchiks riding a bloody war in the Caucasus to victory. Moscow’s war in Chechnya, while not without its supporters among the leadership of the republics, sends a foreboding message, that Russia is still very capable of imposing its will on those territories it views as vital to its national security.
IMPLICATIONS: Iran and the republics share very real concerns over several issues – the flow of illicit drugs and refugees from Afghanistan, the threat from terrorist and criminal organizations, and the desire to see a multi-polar system emerge in the region. However, as Russia and India come closer together, and China and Pakistan continue to expand security and defense ties, the region is rather quickly emerging into several potential flash points.
The recent moves by Moscow to "aid border security" in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan is a very real symbol of Russia’s ability and intent to keep the republics close. Given Russia’s great history and influence in the region, and its desire to maintain this role, these developments are most troubling. A potential southern oil and gas export alternative to Iran would benefit stability and financial security so desired in Central Asia. But recent threats of Russian strikes against Afghanistan’s Taliban implicates the republics as Moscow’s willing accomplices and serves as a reminder that Russia will be heard.
CONCLUSIONS: The emerging Putin-era relations that Moscow will pursue with its neighbors will be of great interest to the Central Asian states. China, Iran, India, and Pakistan, will all impact the security and independence of the republics. Increased Sino-Iranian ties have the potential to bode poorly for the republics, as they may shift from the so-called "shatter-belt" into in area of increased Russian presence in order to insure its authority and security.
Unfortunately for the Central Asian republics, the gain of any state’s influence in the region comes at the expense of another’s. Central Asia is positioned to bear the brunt of any great power tensions. Therefore, the states need to tread carefully as they explore ties with their larger neighbors, and find the middle ground.
AUTHOR BIO: Christopher Boucek currently conducts research and analysis on Central Asia and the Middle East and was previously Director of Business Development at Arthur Houghton Associates, Inc. He wrote his graduate thesis on Israeli Foreign Policy in Central Asia at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London.
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