By Armen Grigoryan (the 13/11/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Russia continues to limit Armenia’s capability to make independent political decisions and is planning to increase its military presence in Armenia. Shortly, Azerbaijan and Georgia will face stronger pressure and Russia’s efforts to create a new union of the former Soviet republics will intensify. As Russia is unable to advance its goals through “soft power,” offering no attractive model of governance, democratic political culture, or serious economic benefits, it will increasingly rely on “hard power.” Regional policies devised by the U.S. and EU are becoming insufficient as regional dynamics change and new threats emerge.
By Archil Zhorzholiani (the 13/11/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
On November 2, outgoing Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili, upon his pre-term resignation decision, nominated incumbent Interior Minister Irakli Gharibashvili as his successor, shortly after Georgia elected a new president.
By Mina Muradova (the 13/11/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Azerbaijan is moving from words to action in delivering gas resources from the Caspian Sea to European markets. President Ilham Aliyev has taken the development of the Southern Gas Corridor under his own supervision. A State Commission chaired by First Vice-Premier Eyub Yagubov has been established by a presidential decree and will be responsible for coordinating all issues related to the Shah Deniz project on a government level, as well as the implementation of the South Caucasus Pipeline Expansion Project, the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline (TANAP) and the Trans Adriatic pipeline (TAP).
By Alexander Beck (the 13/11/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
On November 28-29, six post-Soviet republics will convene in Vilnius for the Eastern Partnership Summit. The “Vilnius Summit” will bring together leaders from Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine with the EU’s high officials to discuss the current state and future objectives of these six potential EU states. Two countries in particular – Georgia and Ukraine – hope to sign trade agreements with the EU, which they trust will further their ambitions to one day enter into the European Union. Both nations, however, enter the Vilnius Summit under significantly differing political situations, despite their similar recent political histories. The political trajectory of both nations, moreover, suggests that Georgia is more likely to sign an economic agreement with the EU than Ukraine this November.
The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.