On September 21, NATO announced that Georgia’s application for Intensified Dialogue with the alliance was approved. While the ID is not an official stage of membership, it is a substantial leap forward for Georgia. Just a year ago, NATO officials visiting Georgia were less then impressed with the pace of reforms, particularly in the military. And a mere six months ago NATO Assistant Secretary General John Colston noted merely that the alliance was ‘impressed’ with Georgia’s progress – not a strong statement of support for a country that hopes for its membership action plan by 2008.

While the Georgian government called the announcement ‘a victory,’ the Kremlin reaction was swift and negative. According to statements by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, NATO is a ‘cold war alliance’ and Georgia’s aspirations to join it will reflect poorly in its relations with Moscow. Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov stopped just short of announcing Russia was preparing for war in light of the likelihood that NATO would soon be at its southern border. “We are actively developing two alpine brigades with the latest equipment. Both brigades will be stationed right by the border with Georgia,” Russian news outlets reported Ivanov as saying. “Therefore, Russian security will not suffer if Georgia joins NATO.”

However negative statements were not limited to Russian politicians. Opposition leaders in Georgia were quick to downgrade the ‘victory’ to a consolation prize. According to Democratic Front member and parliamentarian Kakha Kukava, NATO will ‘never’ consider giving membership status to an ‘authoritarian’ government like Saakashvili’s, so the country was given ID instead. Observers, however, disagree that ID is anything but a step forward for the country.

The real struggle comes now. Over the span of two weeks, Georgian-Russian relations have reached levels so low that international organizations have stepped in to monitor and negotiate the situation. In addition to Moscow’s displeasure over the ID, the Georgian government arrested four Russian army officers last week for allegedly spying on Georgian military and civilian infrastructure. While the officers have since been extradited back to Russia, tensions are on high alert. Russia has ended all transportation services with Georgia and has called back its ambassador. They are also threatening some of the estimated one million Georgian citizens that currently live and work in Russia with deportation.

NATO membership is rightfully a high priority for the Saakashvili government. By gaining even MAP status, the country will firmly be on the path of reform and alliance with western democracies. However, there is no guarantee that NATO will offer Georgia membership – or even MAP – any time soon. In fact, NATO officials and Georgian allies have made it a point of highlighting serious reforms that are a real obstacle for Georgia to move forward. While some analysts believe Saakashvili is purposefully drawing out Russian aggression in the hopes NATO will expedite Georgian membership to ‘save’ a geopolitical hotspot, the end costs for Georgia if it completely breaks ties with its northern neighbor could be too high.